Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Seven intensity image current Seven RI diff image

 


Frank at 08/02/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 08/02/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 08/02/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 08/02/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.6% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 08/01/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 08/01/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 10 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 08/01/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 17 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 08/01/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 43 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/31/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 64 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/31/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 84 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 1.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/31/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 2.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 1.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.7% 0.4% 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.3% 7.0% 4.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/31/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 110 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.9% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 9.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 7.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.6% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.6% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.1% 9.4% 5.1% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/30/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.4% 9.9% 2.2% 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.6% 11.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.2% 11.0% 2.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.9% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.2% 6.9% 2.6% 1.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 9.7% 14.0% 7.2% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 14.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/30/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.1% 21.7% 8.5% 2.6% 2.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 14.7% 16.1% 12.4% 10.3% 5.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.0% 17.5% 11.4% 8.3% 4.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 17.9% 23.9% 21.8% 20.9% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 21.0% 14.8% 6.7% 3.8% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 19.6% 23.2% 15.1% 9.6% 3.7% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 6.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 22.0% 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/30/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 19.9% 25.4% 17.9% 7.9% 13.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 48.4% 37.1% 29.5% 23.7% 13.8% 9.9% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 41.2% 34.1% 26.5% 19.7% 13.8% 7.7% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 48.8% 48.3% 39.6% 27.6% 21.6% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 31.4% 42.2% 35.4% 21.4% 22.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 50.3% 50.5% 39.1% 34.8% 18.4% 10.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Bayesian 46.1% 12.4% 9.7% 8.7% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 43.0% 59.0% 53.0% 35.0% 31.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/30/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 54.8% 61.1% 30.5% 29.1% 39.1% 10.9% 0.6% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 57.5% 62.7% 56.9% 51.5% 37.3% 24.7% 6.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 56.8% 62.2% 50.3% 45.9% 37.7% 21.2% 4.6% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 61.7% 70.7% 64.6% 57.1% 50.0% 35.8% 15.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 56.9% 70.5% 46.7% 36.5% 35.0% 26.9% 2.8% 0.0% Logistic Regression 65.5% 77.3% 66.7% 65.2% 45.3% 36.9% 2.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 45.4% 40.0% 39.4% 32.3% 16.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 59.0% 80.0% 63.0% 44.0% 31.0% 43.0% 5.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/29/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.2% 48.2% 31.0% 18.4% 17.6% 13.0% 2.5% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 25.9% 47.3% 41.4% 34.4% 21.8% 27.1% 9.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 22.9% 47.5% 38.8% 30.4% 20.7% 23.5% 7.4% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 36.7% 68.3% 64.1% 57.3% 47.8% 47.9% 21.3% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 27.1% 58.6% 40.5% 31.7% 22.3% 23.0% 7.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 30.0% 57.9% 44.4% 37.8% 16.5% 32.2% 6.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 11.0% 15.8% 15.8% 8.3% 1.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 40.0% 69.0% 50.0% 45.0% 27.0% 33.0% 12.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/29/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.4% 17.3% 11.2% 8.1% 12.8% 13.9% 11.7% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.5% 24.8% 19.1% 12.7% 6.2% 15.0% 8.6% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.2% 22.9% 17.1% 11.5% 7.8% 14.7% 9.3% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 13.4% 39.0% 35.2% 25.1% 15.0% 31.4% 16.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 20.2% 41.6% 28.1% 20.5% 17.9% 27.9% 14.3% 0.5% Logistic Regression 7.4% 30.2% 18.4% 11.8% 3.4% 13.4% 9.1% 0.3%
Bayesian 1.8% 5.2% 3.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 34.0% 66.0% 45.0% 33.0% 23.0% 42.0% 17.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/29/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.2% 44.4% 27.9% 12.1% 10.2% 27.7% 13.1% 2.7% SHIPS Consensus 12.6% 34.6% 29.7% 20.5% 9.9% 21.1% 17.7% 4.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.5% 37.0% 29.2% 18.3% 9.9% 22.7% 16.5% 3.8% SHIPS-RII 20.1% 59.8% 54.6% 45.6% 27.7% 46.5% 33.1% 11.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 18.6% 55.2% 39.9% 29.0% 19.1% 31.3% 18.5% 1.3% Logistic Regression 5.8% 25.6% 15.3% 9.3% 1.6% 15.6% 19.9% 0.9%
Bayesian 11.9% 18.5% 19.3% 6.5% 0.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 33.0% 66.0% 52.0% 46.0% 28.0% 35.0% 24.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/29/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.8% 65.8% 44.8% 43.3% 36.8% 42.1% 23.8% 5.0% SHIPS Consensus 26.9% 66.5% 63.6% 51.0% 25.6% 45.8% 29.4% 5.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 25.3% 66.3% 58.9% 49.0% 28.4% 44.8% 28.0% 5.4% SHIPS-RII 35.4% 80.0% 75.5% 69.0% 53.4% 63.8% 51.5% 14.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 28.9% 67.4% 49.9% 43.6% 35.9% 51.0% 40.4% 2.5% Logistic Regression 21.9% 64.8% 52.6% 44.9% 14.8% 52.4% 31.4% 2.1%
Bayesian 23.4% 54.7% 62.8% 39.0% 8.6% 21.2% 5.4% 0.0%
DTOPS 37.0% 69.0% 55.0% 44.0% 35.0% 60.0% 57.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/28/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.2% 47.3% 20.5% 11.0% 7.2% 25.8% 33.7% 10.1% SHIPS Consensus 9.9% 40.9% 32.7% 20.6% 9.9% 31.2% 28.5% 7.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.7% 42.5% 29.6% 18.2% 9.2% 29.8% 29.8% 8.3% SHIPS-RII 14.6% 59.8% 47.6% 36.2% 24.1% 56.4% 52.3% 20.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 16.1% 52.1% 32.2% 25.0% 17.1% 33.9% 44.8% 7.5% Logistic Regression 7.5% 38.7% 25.1% 16.4% 4.5% 28.6% 29.5% 2.3%
Bayesian 7.6% 24.2% 25.5% 9.3% 1.1% 8.5% 3.8% 0.4%
DTOPS 19.0% 57.0% 44.0% 39.0% 27.0% 42.0% 56.0% 5.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/28/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.3% 19.1% 11.1% 2.9% 3.7% 17.6% 23.5% 11.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 10.5% 8.2% 7.2% 0.2% 10.4% 18.5% 7.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 12.6% 8.9% 6.1% 1.0% 12.2% 19.7% 8.4% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 22.5% 20.3% 19.6% 0.0% 24.0% 41.7% 20.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.6% 27.0% 16.0% 7.9% 6.8% 20.3% 22.7% 7.3% Logistic Regression 0.8% 8.9% 4.2% 1.9% 0.6% 7.2% 13.5% 1.4%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%
DTOPS 4.0% 35.0% 21.0% 13.0% 10.0% 23.0% 22.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/28/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 7.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 2.6% 10.4% 12.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 7.2% 6.2% 5.8% 0.0% 7.2% 12.8% 7.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 7.1% 5.0% 4.5% 0.0% 6.0% 12.1% 8.6% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 19.3% 17.8% 17.1% 0.0% 19.8% 31.7% 20.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 11.5% 5.1% 3.8% 2.1% 13.3% 12.7% 9.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% 6.4% 1.7%
Bayesian 0.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5%
DTOPS 2.0% 16.0% 9.0% 7.0% 4.0% 24.0% 15.0% 6.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/28/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 6.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 3.7% 11.7% 25.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 9.0% 7.2% 6.6% 0.1% 8.2% 23.7% 15.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 8.3% 5.6% 5.1% 0.2% 7.0% 20.7% 18.0% SHIPS-RII 8.5% 22.2% 19.7% 19.0% 0.0% 20.8% 45.8% 37.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 11.3% 6.0% 5.3% 2.8% 10.8% 27.3% 16.5% Logistic Regression 0.5% 4.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.4% 3.6% 21.4% 7.1%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 4.0% 2.4%
DTOPS 5.0% 16.0% 11.0% 10.0% 5.0% 18.0% 43.0% 8.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/27/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 7.4% 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 2.7% 13.1% 22.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 8.8% 6.9% 6.1% 0.1% 7.5% 15.4% 19.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 8.4% 5.2% 4.7% 0.2% 6.2% 14.8% 20.3% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 20.1% 17.9% 17.1% 0.0% 18.9% 31.8% 41.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 7.7% 2.2% 1.9% 1.2% 3.8% 10.0% 14.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 6.2% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 3.4% 11.8% 8.2%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.7% 10.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5.0% 7.0% 6.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/27/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 2.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 1.9% 0.7% 12.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 6.6% 5.0% 4.4% 0.1% 6.1% 7.0% 13.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 5.6% 4.0% 3.4% 0.1% 5.0% 5.4% 13.5% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 15.1% 13.6% 12.7% 0.0% 15.8% 16.3% 35.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 3.9% 1.4% 1.2% 0.6% 2.4% 3.3% 10.7% Logistic Regression 0.4% 4.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 2.4% 4.4% 4.5%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.3%
DTOPS 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/27/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 4.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 1.4% 0.4% 16.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 5.8% 11.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 4.6% 12.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 26.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 3.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 1.7% 4.7% 18.8% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 3.1% 5.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 9.0% 22.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/27/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 4.3% 12.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% 9.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.9% 10.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 5.6% 14.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.5% 7.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.0% 16.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/26/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 1.2% 18.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 4.6% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 4.9% 7.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 4.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 4.0% 10.1% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 13.2% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 13.3% 17.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 1.6% 15.7% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.5% 4.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 13.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Frank at 07/26/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 1.0% 2.7% 13.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 0.0% 4.3% 4.8% 7.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.9% 3.0% 2.6% 0.0% 3.4% 4.2% 8.9% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 11.3% 11.2% 10.4% 0.0% 12.3% 12.7% 15.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 3.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 1.5% 4.3% 18.8% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 1.6% 6.2%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% 24.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seven at 07/26/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 13.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.7% 2.6% 2.0% 17.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 7.8% 4.9% 4.0% 0.1% 4.6% 7.3% 11.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 9.1% 4.6% 3.2% 0.2% 4.1% 5.9% 12.7% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 14.3% 12.6% 11.4% 0.0% 12.6% 12.9% 15.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 8.6% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 1.8% 3.0% 16.7% Logistic Regression 0.6% 4.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 1.2% 8.8% 17.5%
Bayesian 0.1% 5.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
DTOPS 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 16.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------