Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Fernanda at 08/17/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 82 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/17/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 74 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/17/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 61 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/16/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 58 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/16/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 54 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/16/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 70 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/16/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 64 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 3.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/15/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 92 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 2.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/15/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 98 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 3.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/15/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 106 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 5.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 4.1% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 4.3% 3.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.8% 12.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 2.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/15/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/14/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 2.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 0.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.0% 1.8% 3.8% 1.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/14/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.7% 4.8% 3.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 22.8% 3.0% 6.7% 3.7% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 19.8% 3.4% 5.8% 3.0% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 27.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.3% 2.9% 1.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 37.0% 9.0% 20.2% 11.2% 9.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 12.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/14/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.3% 10.1% 7.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 42.3% 14.7% 20.2% 16.5% 11.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 35.2% 13.5% 16.9% 12.8% 8.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 68.3% 27.7% 26.7% 25.7% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 32.1% 12.5% 7.1% 4.4% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 56.6% 16.2% 33.8% 23.8% 13.8% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 50.0% 15.0% 7.0% 7.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/14/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 52.6% 52.8% 43.4% 33.7% 16.6% 13.8% 0.7% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 56.8% 36.4% 38.0% 32.8% 22.4% 13.1% 0.2% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 55.7% 40.5% 39.3% 33.0% 20.9% 13.3% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 84.0% 60.8% 60.6% 59.6% 48.2% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 65.8% 57.9% 46.2% 35.8% 20.3% 8.9% 0.3% 0.0% Logistic Regression 67.6% 36.7% 51.0% 37.5% 18.8% 10.8% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian 18.8% 11.7% 2.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 79.0% 63.0% 49.0% 38.0% 24.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/13/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.5% 42.8% 35.4% 32.6% 23.9% 24.9% 4.3% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 33.3% 34.0% 30.8% 24.6% 15.6% 11.1% 5.7% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 30.3% 36.1% 31.9% 26.5% 17.6% 14.5% 5.3% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 59.9% 56.9% 55.9% 54.6% 40.8% 29.3% 16.9% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 35.7% 55.4% 48.2% 37.8% 24.4% 30.9% 3.6% 0.2% Logistic Regression 25.7% 27.3% 32.2% 17.2% 5.5% 3.7% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian 14.3% 17.7% 4.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 50.0% 68.0% 61.0% 43.0% 25.0% 37.0% 3.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/13/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.0% 40.8% 29.3% 14.6% 12.3% 11.9% 2.4% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 17.6% 37.4% 30.2% 22.8% 11.4% 19.2% 11.8% 0.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.1% 38.2% 29.9% 20.7% 11.6% 17.4% 9.4% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 28.6% 60.4% 47.6% 40.6% 22.9% 49.4% 35.1% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 16.0% 49.4% 34.6% 21.8% 16.1% 22.9% 10.2% 0.9% Logistic Regression 21.8% 40.6% 39.5% 26.4% 10.3% 7.8% 0.2% 0.6% Bayesian 2.3% 11.1% 3.4% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 28.0% 58.0% 40.0% 29.0% 20.0% 34.0% 18.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/13/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.3% 33.8% 30.2% 6.8% 4.0% 19.7% 14.9% 9.9% SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 24.8% 19.5% 13.6% 5.8% 16.3% 17.4% 11.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 27.0% 22.2% 11.9% 5.3% 17.1% 16.8% 11.3% SHIPS-RII 16.9% 46.5% 40.2% 31.5% 15.5% 41.2% 51.2% 34.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 10.1% 41.4% 29.6% 16.4% 11.0% 30.3% 34.4% 11.9% Logistic Regression 6.3% 18.0% 14.7% 7.9% 1.8% 7.2% 1.0% 1.5% Bayesian 2.1% 10.0% 3.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 16.0% 49.0% 29.0% 26.0% 18.0% 41.0% 54.0% 14.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fernanda at 08/13/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.6% 27.1% 17.5% 13.8% 9.1% 20.0% 16.2% 19.7% SHIPS Consensus 9.1% 31.2% 20.6% 14.0% 6.5% 16.8% 11.7% 10.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.0% 30.1% 19.8% 13.9% 7.1% 17.6% 12.8% 12.6% SHIPS-RII 13.6% 36.0% 25.4% 18.4% 12.4% 26.6% 32.4% 27.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 12.3% 43.5% 26.2% 19.9% 14.0% 36.0% 42.6% 37.3% Logistic Regression 12.9% 45.0% 32.2% 22.1% 6.7% 20.9% 2.1% 3.5% Bayesian 0.9% 12.5% 4.2% 1.6% 0.3% 3.0% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS 12.0% 60.0% 35.0% 26.0% 19.0% 52.0% 69.0% 55.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seven at 08/12/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.7% 27.6% 18.0% 6.5% 3.5% 9.5% 20.9% 27.8% SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 18.0% 10.7% 7.1% 0.5% 10.5% 7.7% 8.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 20.4% 12.5% 7.0% 1.3% 10.2% 11.0% 13.2% SHIPS-RII 11.2% 21.4% 17.7% 14.9% 0.0% 21.7% 19.4% 21.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.8% 27.8% 15.5% 7.2% 4.2% 12.2% 26.4% 39.9% Logistic Regression 5.7% 22.1% 11.9% 6.1% 1.5% 8.7% 2.7% 3.8% Bayesian 0.8% 10.5% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 28.0% 13.0% 8.0% 5.0% 15.0% 32.0% 52.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------