Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Eight intensity image current Eight RI diff image

 


Georgette at 08/03/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 79 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 08/03/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 88 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 2.2% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 08/03/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 2.4% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 08/03/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 98 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 3.3% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 08/02/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 101 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 4.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 2.5% 0.1% 2.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 2.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 08/02/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 105 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 5.9% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 4.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 4.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 2.9% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 08/02/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 101 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 5.1% 2.2% 1.5% 0.6% 2.2% 0.3% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 4.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 2.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 2.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 08/02/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 103 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 3.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 08/01/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 105 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 3.1% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.3% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.2% 2.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 9.4% 8.7% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 2.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 08/01/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 109 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.4% 3.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.8% 2.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 9.5% 8.7% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 08/01/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 115 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 6.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 4.3% 3.7% 2.7% 0.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.9% 3.3% 2.3% 0.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 9.7% 9.2% 7.7% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 3.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.9% 3.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 08/01/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.6% 2.3% 1.7% 0.0% 2.4% 2.8% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 2.1% 1.7% 1.2% 0.0% 1.7% 2.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 7.5% 6.8% 5.1% 0.0% 7.1% 8.3% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/31/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.2% 3.4% 2.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/31/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.4% 0.8% 1.9% 2.4% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6% 1.4% 1.7% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 6.2% 5.8% 4.1% 2.5% 5.7% 7.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/31/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 115 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.7% 1.7% 3.0% 3.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.1% 2.6% 2.0% 1.2% 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 9.6% 9.3% 7.8% 4.8% 9.1% 9.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/31/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 119 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 3.8% 3.4% 2.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 11.1% 10.1% 8.7% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/30/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.0% 3.7% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.2% 2.8% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 3.6% 11.1% 10.5% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/30/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 115 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.1% 3.6% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.3% 2.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 11.9% 10.7% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/30/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 111 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 5.1% 3.3% 2.6% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.1% 2.6% 2.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 15.0% 9.8% 7.9% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/30/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 109 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 4.9% 3.2% 2.6% 0.0% 3.5% 3.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.9% 2.4% 1.9% 0.0% 2.7% 2.4% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 14.7% 9.7% 7.7% 0.0% 10.4% 9.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/29/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.0% 2.4% 4.1% 3.8% 2.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.7% 3.5% 3.0% 1.8% 3.2% 2.9% 2.4% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 13.6% 13.1% 12.0% 7.2% 12.4% 11.4% 8.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/29/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 107 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 10.0% 4.1% 1.0% 0.5% 1.6% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 7.2% 5.4% 4.6% 0.1% 4.9% 3.9% 2.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 7.8% 5.1% 3.6% 0.1% 4.1% 2.9% 2.1% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 20.1% 15.0% 13.4% 0.0% 14.7% 11.6% 7.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 6.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/29/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 107 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 3.8% 2.2% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 6.7% 4.9% 4.1% 0.0% 4.7% 4.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 5.9% 4.2% 3.1% 0.0% 3.9% 3.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 6.4% 19.3% 13.9% 12.1% 0.0% 14.0% 12.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 2.9% 2.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/29/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 109 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 4.5% 2.4% 0.4% 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 6.8% 6.4% 5.6% 3.4% 5.2% 4.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 6.2% 5.3% 4.2% 2.6% 4.1% 3.4% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 18.3% 17.3% 16.3% 10.0% 15.4% 13.3% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 3.2% 2.2% 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.8% 2.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/28/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 113 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.8% 15.7% 9.7% 1.7% 0.7% 1.7% 0.7% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 8.8% 8.0% 6.3% 3.9% 5.9% 4.9% 3.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 10.5% 8.4% 5.1% 3.0% 4.8% 3.8% 2.9% SHIPS-RII 8.5% 20.7% 18.7% 17.6% 10.8% 17.1% 14.6% 9.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 8.3% 5.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% Logistic Regression 2.2% 5.6% 5.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/28/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 119 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 9.1% 3.8% 1.2% 0.7% 5.7% 1.4% 3.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 8.0% 6.3% 5.1% 0.2% 5.7% 4.9% 3.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 8.2% 5.6% 4.1% 0.3% 5.7% 4.0% 3.5% SHIPS-RII 6.8% 20.3% 15.7% 14.3% 0.0% 16.6% 14.5% 10.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 5.0% 2.4% 1.6% 0.8% 2.8% 0.7% 1.9% Logistic Regression 1.1% 3.5% 3.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/28/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 4.6% 2.2% 1.1% 0.6% 2.4% 1.6% 3.8% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 8.3% 6.5% 5.6% 0.1% 6.3% 5.2% 3.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 7.3% 5.3% 4.4% 0.2% 5.3% 4.3% 3.8% SHIPS-RII 7.9% 22.2% 17.2% 15.9% 0.0% 18.4% 15.4% 11.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 2.8% 1.6% 1.5% 0.8% 1.2% 0.8% 1.9% Logistic Regression 0.9% 2.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Georgette at 07/28/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.3% 6.7% 4.8% 1.6% 0.5% 2.5% 3.3% 2.7% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 8.3% 7.4% 6.1% 3.8% 6.4% 5.6% 4.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 7.8% 6.7% 4.9% 2.9% 5.4% 5.0% 4.0% SHIPS-RII 8.5% 18.6% 17.9% 17.1% 10.2% 18.2% 16.3% 12.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 4.3% 3.4% 1.8% 0.7% 1.7% 3.1% 3.8% Logistic Regression 2.2% 5.9% 4.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.8%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Eight at 07/27/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 111 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 12.7% 4.2% 0.9% 0.5% 4.7% 2.1% 14.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 7.8% 6.4% 5.4% 3.2% 6.0% 6.3% 7.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 9.0% 5.8% 4.2% 2.5% 5.6% 5.2% 9.4% SHIPS-RII 7.4% 17.0% 15.8% 14.9% 8.7% 16.2% 15.5% 18.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 7.3% 2.6% 1.4% 0.7% 2.8% 2.0% 8.8% Logistic Regression 2.5% 6.1% 3.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.9% 3.2% 5.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Eight at 07/27/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 11.0% 3.2% 0.9% 0.9% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 5.5% 4.7% 4.0% 0.2% 4.5% 4.9% 5.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 6.8% 4.3% 3.2% 0.3% 3.9% 4.3% 5.2% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 12.8% 12.4% 11.3% 0.0% 12.7% 12.7% 12.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 6.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4% 1.3% 1.9% 6.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 3.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 1.9% 4.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 8.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------