Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Nine intensity image current Nine RI diff image

 


Howard at 08/11/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Howard at 08/10/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Howard at 08/10/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 33 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Howard at 08/10/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 46 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Howard at 08/10/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 58 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.3% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Howard at 08/09/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 72 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.1% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Howard at 08/09/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 80 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.1% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Howard at 08/09/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 86 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.2% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Howard at 08/09/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.1% 3.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 5.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.5% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.5% 3.0% 2.1% 2.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Howard at 08/08/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 111 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.5% 8.1% 5.6% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 15.9% 8.8% 8.9% 7.6% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.8% 8.6% 7.8% 6.1% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 39.3% 24.0% 22.3% 21.9% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 14.7% 10.0% 6.3% 4.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.4% 2.5% 4.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 22.0% 12.0% 7.0% 7.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Howard at 08/08/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 129 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.5% 5.4% 5.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 7.7% 7.3% 6.5% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 7.1% 6.7% 5.2% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.8% 21.0% 19.6% 18.9% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.7% 7.2% 5.5% 3.8% 2.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 9.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Howard at 08/08/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 96 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 2.7% 3.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 7.9% 7.1% 6.4% 3.9% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 6.5% 6.2% 5.0% 3.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.8% 21.2% 19.7% 18.8% 11.4% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 4.8% 3.7% 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.7% 2.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Howard at 08/08/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 10.9% 6.3% 4.5% 1.6% 3.6% 1.3% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 7.1% 5.1% 4.0% 0.1% 4.1% 3.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 8.0% 5.3% 4.1% 0.4% 3.9% 2.5% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 17.7% 12.9% 11.3% 0.0% 11.8% 8.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 9.4% 4.6% 3.2% 1.3% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.0% 3.7% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Howard at 08/07/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 12.2% 4.1% 1.6% 1.0% 5.4% 2.8% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 6.7% 6.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4.9% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 8.1% 5.5% 0.6% 0.3% 5.0% 0.7% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 16.1% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 10.1% 3.0% 1.3% 1.0% 4.2% 2.4% 0.3% Logistic Regression 2.2% 4.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 08/07/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.4% 21.8% 10.4% 3.5% 1.4% 8.0% 0.9% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 6.7% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 10.4% 5.3% 1.0% 0.3% 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 16.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 11.9% 5.7% 2.2% 0.7% 4.5% 1.9% 1.8% Logistic Regression 1.2% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 08/07/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.9% 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 0.6% 2.9% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 5.6% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.8% 4.2% 0.4% 0.0% 3.6% 0.7% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 4.7% 14.7% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 3.4% 1.2% 1.3% 0.0% 1.8% 6.4% 3.2% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 10.0% 5.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 08/07/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 26.5% 14.3% 5.0% 1.9% 16.8% 4.4% 2.7% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 10.0% 7.4% 6.0% 0.4% 6.1% 4.8% 0.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 14.1% 9.1% 5.7% 0.7% 8.7% 4.6% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 6.2% 17.3% 16.1% 15.0% 0.0% 15.6% 13.4% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 17.2% 8.6% 3.5% 1.4% 9.4% 5.7% 4.3% Logistic Regression 2.8% 11.8% 6.1% 3.0% 1.0% 2.6% 0.9% 1.6%
Bayesian 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 7.0% 6.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 08/06/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 17.2% 4.9% 0.7% 0.7% 9.9% 3.3% 7.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 7.4% 6.2% 0.3% 0.1% 5.7% 0.4% 0.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 9.8% 5.9% 0.4% 0.2% 6.6% 1.1% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 5.7% 16.9% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 12.1% 3.4% 1.3% 0.8% 7.4% 7.1% 7.9% Logistic Regression 1.0% 4.3% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 1.4% 1.1% 2.2%
Bayesian 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 11.0% 8.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 08/06/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.7% 31.4% 24.2% 13.2% 4.4% 14.9% 5.0% 6.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 8.8% 6.9% 5.5% 0.4% 5.8% 4.9% 0.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 14.4% 11.2% 7.4% 1.3% 8.0% 4.9% 2.2% SHIPS-RII 6.2% 16.6% 15.4% 14.3% 0.0% 15.2% 13.2% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 17.2% 12.6% 7.1% 2.2% 7.9% 4.5% 16.8% Logistic Regression 2.4% 8.3% 5.1% 2.3% 1.1% 2.1% 1.4% 2.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 27.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------