Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Nine intensity image current Nine RI diff image

 


Hilary at 08/21/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/20/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/20/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/20/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/20/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 64 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/19/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 74 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/19/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/19/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/19/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 4.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 3.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.7% 12.6% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/18/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 5.3% 3.8% 2.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 4.2% 2.9% 2.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.6% 14.9% 11.2% 8.3% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/18/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.7% 2.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 10.5% 9.3% 5.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.3% 7.6% 4.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.4% 18.2% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 10.8% 9.6% 3.2% 2.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/18/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.7% 6.8% 3.7% 0.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 34.2% 16.8% 9.4% 8.3% 4.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 30.8% 14.2% 7.9% 6.3% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 50.9% 32.6% 20.5% 18.7% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 21.3% 7.9% 4.3% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 28.7% 17.2% 7.6% 6.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 23.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 22.0% 9.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/18/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 27.7% 18.2% 8.4% 6.0% 16.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 53.9% 44.9% 33.3% 31.7% 20.1% 13.2% 0.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 47.3% 38.2% 27.0% 25.2% 19.1% 10.0% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 70.4% 65.9% 51.7% 47.3% 38.5% 23.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 47.8% 38.6% 23.2% 13.5% 13.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 62.4% 61.7% 44.6% 44.8% 21.6% 15.6% 0.8% 0.0%
Bayesian 28.9% 7.1% 3.6% 3.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 68.0% 59.0% 38.0% 21.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/17/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.1% 15.4% 9.8% 3.5% 17.7% 4.5% 0.8% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 77.0% 78.5% 65.2% 66.3% 41.8% 43.4% 4.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 61.2% 62.7% 51.3% 50.5% 35.7% 33.7% 3.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 97.2% 96.1% 94.8% 93.8% 73.3% 74.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 79.8% 79.4% 67.9% 66.7% 39.0% 55.5% 12.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 54.0% 60.1% 33.0% 38.3% 13.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/17/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 25.3% 60.4% 41.0% 28.8% 45.8% 37.2% 6.8% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 75.8% 75.3% 73.3% 67.9% 51.2% 53.5% 35.0% 5.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 63.1% 71.5% 65.1% 58.1% 49.8% 49.4% 27.9% 4.0% SHIPS-RII 98.3% 100.0% 98.5% 97.6% 88.9% 100.0% 68.2% 15.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 58.6% 77.7% 69.5% 62.4% 68.9% 63.6% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic Regression 63.5% 74.7% 64.0% 59.1% 39.6% 56.3% 36.8% 0.2%
Bayesian 65.6% 51.2% 57.2% 47.1% 24.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 92.0% 95.0% 98.0% 96.0% 92.0% 90.0% 17.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/17/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.3% 49.4% 52.2% 35.3% 40.5% 39.9% 21.7% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 48.2% 81.2% 70.8% 66.7% 49.8% 76.1% 63.2% 22.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 40.0% 73.2% 66.1% 58.8% 47.5% 67.0% 52.8% 16.9% SHIPS-RII 75.0% 100.0% 99.0% 98.0% 95.5% 100.0% 99.9% 59.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 44.6% 68.7% 72.1% 62.1% 59.2% 64.4% 48.3% 2.6% Logistic Regression 36.7% 75.2% 64.1% 57.9% 39.0% 75.6% 81.9% 2.0%
Bayesian 33.0% 68.4% 49.4% 44.0% 15.0% 52.7% 7.7% 5.2%
DTOPS 74.0% 88.0% 92.0% 89.0% 78.0% 89.0% 75.0% 4.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/17/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.6% 58.7% 37.8% 26.8% 15.9% 41.8% 38.2% 4.9% SHIPS Consensus 39.6% 86.8% 76.1% 66.6% 47.1% 85.1% 79.1% 27.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 32.3% 79.8% 66.5% 56.6% 39.3% 74.3% 68.8% 21.5% SHIPS-RII 42.5% 99.1% 91.8% 86.9% 63.2% 100.0% 100.0% 68.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 22.3% 68.8% 57.9% 48.9% 31.9% 55.4% 55.6% 14.4% Logistic Regression 36.7% 83.3% 68.8% 61.3% 51.1% 79.6% 80.4% 6.8%
Bayesian 39.7% 78.1% 67.7% 51.5% 27.2% 75.8% 56.8% 5.7%
DTOPS 34.0% 79.0% 78.0% 71.0% 48.0% 69.0% 73.0% 24.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hilary at 08/16/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.8% 60.9% 44.4% 28.7% 15.9% 27.6% 26.2% 10.5% SHIPS Consensus 9.8% 60.4% 50.3% 31.4% 22.6% 63.8% 66.8% 32.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.8% 60.5% 48.8% 30.7% 20.9% 54.7% 56.6% 26.8% SHIPS-RII 16.3% 77.9% 65.8% 47.9% 41.0% 91.4% 99.2% 75.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.9% 60.4% 43.2% 29.3% 15.4% 47.3% 49.1% 35.7% Logistic Regression 10.2% 68.2% 46.6% 32.6% 23.7% 63.5% 80.8% 7.8%
Bayesian 3.0% 35.3% 38.6% 13.6% 3.2% 36.4% 20.3% 14.0%
DTOPS 18.0% 60.0% 42.0% 30.0% 15.0% 67.0% 72.0% 61.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 08/16/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 172 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 44.5% 12.9% 4.5% 2.7% 27.3% 37.6% 15.1% SHIPS Consensus 13.6% 59.1% 46.5% 27.9% 21.7% 71.9% 84.5% 46.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.7% 55.4% 38.1% 22.0% 16.9% 60.7% 72.7% 38.2% SHIPS-RII 17.1% 73.8% 62.4% 46.4% 35.1% 90.1% 98.7% 78.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.5% 54.2% 33.9% 23.7% 12.8% 51.6% 58.8% 48.5% Logistic Regression 8.1% 60.4% 37.8% 24.4% 26.6% 60.1% 87.4% 21.1%
Bayesian 15.7% 43.0% 39.3% 12.9% 3.5% 65.5% 67.2% 38.6%
DTOPS 21.0% 64.0% 55.0% 43.0% 23.0% 76.0% 80.0% 82.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------