Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Ten intensity image current Ten RI diff image

 


Irwin at 08/29/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 47 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Irwin at 08/29/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 6 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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Irwin at 08/29/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 2 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.3% 0.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Irwin at 08/29/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 28 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Irwin at 08/28/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 41 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Irwin at 08/28/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 37 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Irwin at 08/28/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 43 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 5.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Irwin at 08/28/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 50 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 5.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Irwin at 08/27/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 70 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 2.5% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 7.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 5.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 2.2% 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.8% 1.7% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.6% 3.3% 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Irwin at 08/27/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 1.8% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 8.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 5.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 10.6% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 4.1% 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.9% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.7% 5.3% 3.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ten at 08/27/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 96 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 6.9% 5.5% 4.0% 0.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 5.6% 4.3% 3.1% 0.2% 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 8.7% 17.2% 14.4% 11.5% 0.0% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 3.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.8% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 3.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ten at 08/27/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 105 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 1.7% 2.5% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 7.8% 5.8% 4.3% 0.0% 5.7% 4.6% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 6.1% 4.4% 3.2% 0.0% 4.6% 4.1% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 10.0% 19.5% 15.5% 12.4% 0.0% 16.7% 13.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 5.1% 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% 2.3% 3.2% 2.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 3.7% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0%
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