Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current  intensity image current  RI diff image

 


Javier at 09/04/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Javier at 09/04/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.9% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Javier at 09/03/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 14 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Javier at 09/03/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 56 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Javier at 09/03/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 88 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Javier at 09/03/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.0% 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.7% 10.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 7.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.0% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.5% 1.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.1% 9.4% 4.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Javier at 09/02/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.0% 4.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 10.4% 8.2% 6.7% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 8.8% 6.6% 5.2% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.5% 21.9% 19.5% 18.5% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.0% 3.5% 2.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.3% 9.3% 5.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Javier at 09/02/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.3% 13.9% 3.3% 0.7% 0.7% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 10.2% 16.5% 12.2% 9.6% 4.4% 6.5% 4.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.7% 15.7% 9.9% 7.3% 3.4% 5.2% 3.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.3% 24.4% 21.8% 21.0% 12.4% 18.0% 13.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 9.4% 2.6% 1.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 15.4% 23.7% 14.5% 7.6% 0.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Javier at 09/02/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.3% 28.2% 18.1% 4.3% 1.4% 5.5% 0.4% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 16.6% 11.2% 9.2% 4.6% 7.3% 5.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.1% 19.5% 12.9% 7.9% 3.8% 6.8% 4.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.1% 30.4% 23.0% 22.0% 13.3% 19.2% 15.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.6% 16.1% 9.5% 2.6% 1.2% 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 7.3% 17.5% 9.9% 5.4% 0.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 1.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Eleven at 09/02/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.0% 25.4% 16.9% 10.3% 4.8% 12.9% 0.7% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 26.6% 15.6% 12.3% 1.1% 10.5% 5.4% 3.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.0% 26.3% 15.9% 11.8% 2.0% 11.1% 4.2% 2.3% SHIPS-RII 12.3% 34.5% 22.7% 21.3% 0.0% 18.8% 15.1% 9.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.0% 19.2% 10.9% 6.6% 3.4% 7.9% 1.8% 0.1% Logistic Regression 12.6% 43.4% 23.3% 15.4% 3.4% 12.7% 1.1% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 13.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0%
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at 09/01/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.9% 28.9% 29.3% 11.8% 4.5% 16.5% 3.1% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 9.3% 30.6% 20.1% 15.8% 1.7% 18.5% 6.8% 3.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 30.1% 22.4% 14.7% 2.4% 17.9% 5.8% 3.0% SHIPS-RII 12.6% 37.8% 24.6% 22.5% 0.0% 21.5% 17.2% 11.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.4% 17.9% 15.6% 6.9% 2.7% 8.7% 3.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 14.8% 50.9% 34.0% 24.4% 5.0% 33.7% 3.2% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.5% 3.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0%
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