Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Twelve intensity image current Twelve RI diff image

 


Kay at 09/10/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/09/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.8% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/09/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/09/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/08/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 29 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/08/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 64 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/08/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 81 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/08/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/07/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/07/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 6.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 5.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.6% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.7% 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.7% 3.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 15.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/07/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.1% 1.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 8.9% 12.3% 8.0% 7.3% 4.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 9.6% 6.3% 5.5% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 16.1% 22.6% 20.2% 19.2% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 14.0% 10.8% 9.0% 6.1% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.1% 13.4% 3.5% 2.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 21.0% 20.0% 17.0% 12.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/07/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.0% 3.5% 2.6% 1.7% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 9.6% 15.2% 9.3% 8.2% 4.6% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 12.4% 7.5% 6.5% 4.2% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 18.0% 24.8% 21.4% 20.3% 12.7% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.0% 18.7% 13.8% 8.3% 9.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.1% 19.8% 5.8% 4.0% 1.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 3.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 34.0% 33.0% 25.0% 16.0% 17.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/06/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.0% 10.9% 3.1% 1.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 10.6% 7.3% 6.7% 4.0% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.7% 12.1% 6.9% 5.7% 3.4% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.3% 22.4% 19.7% 18.7% 11.6% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.5% 24.9% 17.0% 10.6% 9.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 9.0% 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 21.0% 38.0% 27.0% 17.0% 16.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/06/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.6% 13.8% 10.9% 8.8% 7.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 19.4% 10.1% 8.9% 5.0% 8.5% 0.6% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 18.0% 10.3% 8.8% 5.7% 6.5% 0.5% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.7% 24.7% 20.6% 19.5% 12.1% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 22.8% 40.4% 29.9% 22.4% 16.4% 14.9% 0.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.3% 29.7% 7.0% 5.5% 2.8% 8.2% 1.9% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.0% 3.8% 2.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 34.0% 67.0% 49.0% 36.0% 25.0% 29.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/06/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.8% 15.5% 4.3% 4.4% 1.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 7.7% 5.9% 5.3% 3.0% 5.0% 4.6% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 9.3% 5.2% 4.9% 2.6% 4.2% 3.6% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.5% 17.6% 15.7% 15.0% 8.8% 13.7% 9.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 12.9% 31.2% 21.1% 14.7% 11.7% 16.2% 2.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 3.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 4.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.5% 1.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 25.0% 46.0% 39.0% 26.0% 22.0% 24.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/06/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.1% 29.6% 16.3% 9.6% 6.8% 4.9% 1.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 13.9% 7.8% 0.9% 0.7% 8.4% 8.7% 2.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 17.8% 9.9% 3.0% 2.2% 7.5% 6.7% 1.9% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 23.8% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 13.4% 7.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 18.0% 50.8% 37.6% 28.8% 19.9% 24.4% 4.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.1% 15.4% 3.1% 2.3% 1.2% 6.9% 12.6% 0.3%
Bayesian 3.5% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 31.0% 72.0% 59.0% 48.0% 33.0% 44.0% 8.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/05/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.3% 27.6% 5.8% 3.7% 4.1% 3.4% 6.2% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 20.2% 9.6% 1.6% 0.9% 12.2% 13.1% 4.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 22.0% 8.6% 2.1% 1.7% 10.0% 11.3% 3.5% SHIPS-RII 12.5% 31.9% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 16.7% 10.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 22.1% 45.8% 26.9% 22.3% 14.5% 29.7% 16.1% 1.8% Logistic Regression 5.0% 25.6% 6.3% 4.8% 2.3% 14.1% 21.9% 1.3%
Bayesian 1.0% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
DTOPS 38.0% 64.0% 48.0% 41.0% 25.0% 56.0% 26.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/05/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.1% 30.8% 7.4% 10.3% 6.3% 20.6% 5.5% 2.7% SHIPS Consensus 6.7% 21.1% 13.6% 9.7% 0.7% 11.3% 15.8% 6.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 23.5% 12.0% 9.8% 2.1% 13.5% 13.1% 5.4% SHIPS-RII 11.9% 24.3% 21.5% 21.0% 0.0% 19.6% 16.1% 11.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 14.5% 48.9% 26.7% 19.6% 11.1% 34.3% 34.2% 2.3% Logistic Regression 4.8% 24.9% 7.7% 5.5% 1.4% 11.8% 30.7% 4.5%
Bayesian 3.5% 14.1% 11.5% 2.4% 0.8% 2.3% 0.4% 3.1%
DTOPS 22.0% 67.0% 46.0% 29.0% 16.0% 48.0% 63.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/05/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.3% 31.3% 12.3% 10.0% 7.3% 14.5% 10.8% 7.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 20.8% 13.4% 8.7% 0.5% 9.9% 15.8% 9.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 23.4% 13.1% 9.0% 2.2% 11.0% 14.5% 8.8% SHIPS-RII 9.9% 22.9% 20.1% 19.4% 0.0% 19.1% 16.8% 13.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.6% 48.1% 28.6% 22.0% 13.6% 39.2% 35.4% 8.0% Logistic Regression 2.3% 17.0% 4.7% 2.8% 0.6% 9.4% 29.8% 6.3%
Bayesian 1.9% 22.6% 15.3% 3.9% 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 8.8%
DTOPS 15.0% 65.0% 45.0% 34.0% 20.0% 64.0% 60.0% 9.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kay at 09/05/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.9% 36.5% 21.7% 9.8% 6.5% 23.9% 9.8% 22.2% SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 23.0% 11.8% 8.2% 3.9% 14.6% 22.1% 16.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 26.3% 14.2% 8.6% 4.5% 16.9% 19.0% 17.7% SHIPS-RII 8.3% 21.9% 18.2% 17.0% 10.0% 18.1% 16.5% 18.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.9% 52.7% 38.3% 27.4% 19.2% 28.9% 37.9% 30.6% Logistic Regression 3.6% 27.1% 8.0% 5.1% 1.3% 23.9% 48.7% 15.6%
Bayesian 0.6% 20.0% 9.1% 2.7% 0.5% 1.7% 1.2% 14.5%
DTOPS 12.0% 69.0% 55.0% 45.0% 32.0% 34.0% 66.0% 39.0%
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Kay at 09/04/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 37.2% 8.5% 5.5% 3.1% 22.6% 10.0% 23.3% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 26.7% 12.8% 9.3% 4.0% 16.3% 17.8% 16.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 29.3% 11.7% 8.3% 3.8% 17.9% 15.8% 18.3% SHIPS-RII 9.2% 23.2% 18.7% 17.4% 10.2% 18.9% 17.3% 27.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.2% 51.1% 29.7% 24.2% 16.0% 38.3% 42.5% 32.6% Logistic Regression 6.1% 37.0% 12.1% 8.3% 1.5% 28.1% 33.6% 15.4%
Bayesian 0.8% 19.9% 7.5% 2.3% 0.4% 2.0% 2.4% 7.1%
DTOPS 11.0% 65.0% 51.0% 43.0% 29.0% 54.0% 75.0% 42.0%
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Twelve at 09/04/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.7% 17.1% 8.8% 7.5% 2.8% 23.5% 14.5% 30.1% SHIPS Consensus 6.6% 29.5% 16.8% 11.8% 1.1% 21.2% 32.1% 23.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 26.4% 14.8% 10.7% 1.5% 21.7% 27.7% 25.2% SHIPS-RII 9.7% 23.7% 19.0% 17.8% 0.0% 18.8% 27.4% 38.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.8% 30.0% 17.4% 15.2% 7.9% 24.2% 32.7% 38.5% Logistic Regression 8.3% 48.8% 21.5% 15.0% 2.9% 41.6% 62.6% 26.8%
Bayesian 1.7% 16.0% 9.9% 2.6% 0.4% 3.2% 6.3% 5.7%
DTOPS 5.0% 43.0% 26.0% 23.0% 13.0% 25.0% 51.0% 47.0%
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