Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Thirteen intensity image current Thirteen RI diff image

 


Lester at 09/17/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 3.1% 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% 0.7% 4.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 8.9% 6.1% 5.2% 2.9% 7.2% 12.1% 9.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 7.4% 4.8% 4.1% 2.3% 5.6% 9.2% 8.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 20.3% 16.2% 14.7% 8.5% 15.7% 15.1% 14.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.5% 0.6% 1.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 2.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 5.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 5.8% 21.0% 6.9%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 7.9%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Lester at 09/17/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 2.1% 0.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.9% 0.8% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 9.5% 6.4% 0.3% 0.2% 8.2% 12.7% 13.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 7.6% 4.9% 0.6% 0.6% 6.6% 9.7% 10.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 21.1% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 16.6% 19.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 6.5% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 6.4% 20.9% 7.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 13.9%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Lester at 09/17/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 2.2% 0.9% 1.1% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 2.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 6.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 5.6% 4.1% 6.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 5.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 4.4% 3.1% 5.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% 14.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 3.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 2.8% 12.2% 5.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Lester at 09/16/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 4.9% 1.8% 2.1% 0.7% 5.9% 1.6% 6.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 7.3% 5.3% 4.7% 2.6% 6.1% 13.1% 10.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 6.6% 4.4% 4.0% 2.1% 6.0% 10.2% 9.9% SHIPS-RII 5.8% 18.8% 15.1% 13.8% 7.8% 15.4% 15.3% 17.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 3.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.3% 2.9% 0.8% 3.3% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 3.0% 24.1% 9.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9%
DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Lester at 09/16/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.0% 16.3% 4.9% 7.7% 1.8% 11.2% 5.1% 10.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 9.2% 6.3% 5.4% 2.9% 7.4% 16.9% 17.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 10.9% 5.9% 5.9% 2.6% 8.3% 13.9% 15.4% SHIPS-RII 6.3% 18.7% 15.7% 14.6% 8.2% 15.7% 15.6% 18.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 12.6% 4.4% 5.3% 1.9% 6.1% 2.5% 5.6% Logistic Regression 0.7% 7.5% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5% 6.4% 34.8% 14.4%
Bayesian 0.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 18.8%
DTOPS 1.0% 9.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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Thirteen at 09/16/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 3.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 6.3% 5.3% 4.9% 0.0% 5.8% 8.5% 10.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 5.6% 4.0% 3.8% 0.1% 4.6% 6.7% 8.2% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 16.8% 15.2% 14.5% 0.0% 15.4% 15.4% 20.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 3.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 2.0% 10.2% 5.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
DTOPS 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Thirteen at 09/16/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 3.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 1.9% 1.3% 5.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 6.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% 9.5% 12.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 6.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1.6% 7.4% 10.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 5.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 1.9% 0.6% 2.7% Logistic Regression 0.3% 4.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 4.7% 28.4% 14.4%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Thirteen at 09/15/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 167 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.7% 4.9% 1.6% 2.1% 1.1% 2.8% 5.8% 15.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 12.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.6% 5.4% 21.1% 22.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 10.2% 1.7% 1.3% 0.6% 4.7% 17.2% 21.0% SHIPS-RII 6.7% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 7.4% 3.8% 3.0% 2.0% 3.9% 6.4% 8.6% Logistic Regression 1.9% 15.9% 5.1% 3.2% 1.4% 16.2% 63.2% 39.3%
Bayesian 0.5% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7%
DTOPS 2.0% 10.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 2.0%
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