Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current  intensity image current  RI diff image

 


Newton at 09/29/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 3.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 2.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.3% Logistic Regression 1.6% 9.4% 4.5% 2.4% 0.9% 6.0% 1.2% 1.7%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/28/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 8.8% 6.0% 1.7% 0.2% 6.8% 1.8% 3.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 6.4% 3.9% 2.0% 1.4% 3.1% 2.1% 2.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 7.0% 4.4% 1.9% 1.1% 4.0% 2.0% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 4.9% 3.0% 0.8% 0.1% 3.4% 0.9% 1.8% Logistic Regression 5.1% 19.1% 11.8% 6.1% 4.2% 9.4% 6.4% 6.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/28/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2.8% 0.7% 3.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 10.9% 5.8% 2.3% 1.8% 4.2% 1.9% 2.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 8.7% 4.4% 1.8% 1.3% 3.8% 1.5% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.5% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 1.5% Logistic Regression 5.0% 19.0% 11.3% 7.0% 5.4% 12.5% 5.6% 6.9%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/28/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 1.4% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 5.4% 4.8% 0.3% 0.2% 5.1% 0.6% 1.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 4.6% 3.7% 0.3% 0.1% 4.1% 0.8% 1.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 12.6% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 1.3% Logistic Regression 1.2% 3.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.6% 3.8% 1.9% 4.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/28/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 3.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 1.2% 1.1% 3.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 7.2% 6.1% 0.7% 0.4% 5.7% 3.7% 6.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 6.1% 4.8% 0.6% 0.3% 4.5% 3.0% 6.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.6% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 2.1% Logistic Regression 2.3% 5.9% 4.4% 2.2% 1.2% 5.7% 11.2% 20.7%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/27/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 3.9% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 3.6% 0.8% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 11.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.1% 7.3% 6.7% 9.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 9.1% 8.0% 2.3% 1.5% 6.4% 5.2% 7.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 14.3% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 9.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 7.6% 18.3% 16.1% 9.0% 6.2% 11.0% 10.5% 29.2%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/27/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 5.1% 0.8% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 8.5% 5.6% 1.4% 0.8% 5.7% 3.9% 5.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 7.0% 4.3% 1.1% 0.5% 5.5% 3.1% 4.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.1% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 8.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 3.0% 10.2% 8.6% 4.2% 2.3% 7.3% 3.8% 16.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/27/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 4.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 3.2% 0.4% 2.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 11.8% 10.7% 3.2% 2.7% 9.2% 4.6% 6.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 9.8% 8.3% 2.4% 2.0% 7.6% 3.5% 5.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 16.2% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 9.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 5.5% 19.1% 17.5% 9.7% 8.2% 15.2% 3.9% 18.6%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/25/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.1% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 1.6%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/25/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.9% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 4.1% 3.5% 2.7% 0.1% 3.5% 0.1% 0.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.7% 2.9% 2.0% 0.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 9.8% 8.9% 7.4% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 2.1% 0.3% 2.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/25/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.7% 0.0% 3.3% 2.9% 3.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.8% 2.5% 2.0% 0.0% 2.5% 2.1% 2.7% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 9.8% 9.3% 7.8% 0.0% 8.8% 8.6% 9.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/25/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.9% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 3.0% 2.9% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 3.0% 2.3% 1.8% 0.0% 2.3% 2.1% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 11.3% 9.3% 7.3% 0.0% 8.8% 8.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/24/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 3.7% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 3.0% 3.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.8% 2.3% 1.8% 0.0% 2.2% 2.3% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.8% 10.7% 9.2% 7.2% 0.0% 8.7% 9.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/24/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 3.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0% 2.7% 2.7% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 2.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 2.1% 2.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 9.0% 5.3% 3.0% 0.0% 7.7% 8.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/24/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 114 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.5% 3.3% 2.7% 1.7% 3.4% 3.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.0% 1.2% 2.5% 2.3% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 9.8% 9.6% 8.0% 5.1% 9.7% 9.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/24/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 110 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 5.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 4.9% 4.3% 3.6% 2.1% 3.7% 3.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 5.0% 3.7% 2.7% 1.6% 3.0% 2.3% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 12.4% 11.5% 10.0% 6.0% 10.2% 9.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 2.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 1.4% 2.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/23/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 111 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 5.6% 4.8% 4.1% 2.4% 3.9% 3.4% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 5.1% 3.9% 3.1% 1.8% 3.4% 2.6% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 14.4% 12.9% 11.3% 6.9% 11.2% 10.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.4% 2.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/23/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 110 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 6.5% 5.0% 4.2% 2.5% 3.9% 3.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 5.3% 3.9% 3.2% 1.9% 3.0% 2.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.9% 15.4% 13.1% 11.3% 6.7% 10.7% 9.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 3.9% 2.0% 1.3% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/23/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 108 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 4.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 5.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.3% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 2.8% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 2.9% 1.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/23/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 114 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 12.1% 3.2% 1.5% 0.2% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 5.5% 4.7% 4.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 7.1% 4.3% 3.4% 1.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.3% 15.1% 13.2% 11.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 7.0% 2.1% 1.7% 1.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/22/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 115 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 3.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 5.5% 4.3% 3.6% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.1% 17.5% 15.0% 13.5% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 2.5% 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/22/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 13.0% 5.9% 2.3% 0.8% 4.6% 0.8% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 6.5% 9.7% 8.3% 7.5% 4.3% 5.7% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 10.5% 7.7% 6.1% 3.4% 5.4% 0.3% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 12.4% 20.9% 19.6% 18.8% 11.1% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.8% 11.5% 7.4% 6.1% 3.9% 3.8% 0.4% 0.4% Logistic Regression 7.1% 7.9% 5.3% 3.6% 1.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 10.0% 9.0% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/22/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 126 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 9.4% 7.0% 3.4% 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 8.1% 12.0% 9.8% 8.9% 5.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 11.3% 9.0% 7.5% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 13.6% 22.9% 20.6% 19.6% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.9% 6.2% 4.5% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% Logistic Regression 10.6% 12.9% 8.7% 7.0% 4.0% 2.5% 0.1% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Newton at 09/22/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 19.1% 15.0% 4.5% 1.3% 4.0% 1.4% 4.2% SHIPS Consensus 6.4% 11.8% 8.8% 7.6% 4.8% 6.4% 0.4% 0.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 13.6% 10.3% 6.8% 3.8% 5.7% 0.6% 1.7% SHIPS-RII 11.9% 21.4% 18.4% 17.2% 10.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.8% 11.5% 9.0% 4.2% 1.6% 2.5% 0.7% 2.1% Logistic Regression 7.3% 13.8% 7.8% 5.5% 3.9% 2.8% 1.1% 2.8%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


at 09/21/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 14.6% 11.6% 2.6% 0.6% 4.5% 5.7% 15.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 7.6% 5.7% 4.8% 0.3% 4.7% 4.2% 3.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 9.3% 7.1% 4.2% 0.3% 4.6% 4.6% 6.6% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 16.1% 14.4% 13.3% 0.0% 12.8% 11.5% 8.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 7.8% 5.8% 1.8% 0.3% 2.2% 2.8% 7.6% Logistic Regression 1.5% 5.1% 2.6% 1.2% 0.8% 1.1% 1.2% 2.3%
Bayesian 0.2% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------