Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Sixteen intensity image current Sixteen RI diff image

 


Orlene at 10/04/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 187 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 10/03/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 190 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 10/03/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 187 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 10/03/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 173 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 10/03/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 10/02/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 10/02/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 5.0% 4.7% 4.1% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 3.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.7% 14.1% 13.2% 12.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 10/02/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.1% 3.2% 4.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 12.5% 8.0% 7.5% 6.8% 4.4% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.4% 6.7% 6.6% 5.4% 3.4% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 19.4% 20.2% 18.9% 18.2% 11.6% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.5% 1.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 15.4% 3.4% 3.7% 2.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 10/02/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 32.9% 21.9% 26.5% 17.1% 8.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 20.1% 10.1% 9.5% 8.4% 5.4% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 23.2% 13.0% 13.7% 10.5% 6.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 34.5% 23.6% 21.9% 21.6% 13.5% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 30.4% 14.4% 16.2% 11.5% 6.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 21.3% 5.9% 6.1% 3.5% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 4.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 28.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 10/01/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 35.1% 48.8% 48.6% 44.3% 29.2% 7.2% 1.4% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 21.4% 17.5% 14.3% 10.1% 7.0% 6.7% 4.4% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 24.8% 25.2% 22.8% 18.6% 12.5% 6.8% 3.6% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 40.5% 36.1% 31.2% 24.7% 17.7% 19.1% 12.9% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 30.0% 33.4% 29.8% 27.1% 17.6% 3.6% 0.7% 0.0% Logistic Regression 16.3% 9.4% 8.8% 4.4% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 7.6% 6.9% 2.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 25.0% 18.0% 11.0% 10.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 10/01/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.5% 29.1% 31.1% 23.5% 8.8% 6.7% 2.9% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 8.5% 16.7% 13.7% 9.5% 7.4% 6.9% 4.8% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.7% 19.8% 18.0% 13.0% 7.7% 6.8% 4.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 18.5% 41.1% 34.3% 25.2% 20.5% 20.0% 14.3% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 14.2% 26.0% 21.5% 15.2% 7.9% 3.8% 1.4% 0.1% Logistic Regression 6.3% 7.6% 6.1% 3.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 23.0% 12.0% 7.0% 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 10/01/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.0% 22.5% 16.4% 15.6% 6.8% 2.7% 0.7% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 16.3% 12.3% 9.3% 5.6% 7.5% 5.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 17.8% 13.3% 10.8% 5.9% 6.2% 4.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.4% 37.5% 29.6% 23.8% 14.6% 21.1% 15.3% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.5% 31.7% 20.7% 14.3% 10.4% 7.8% 0.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 5.5% 10.8% 7.2% 4.0% 2.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 41.0% 25.0% 13.0% 14.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 10/01/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.0% 46.3% 42.2% 24.2% 17.8% 11.5% 4.3% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 11.4% 27.5% 21.6% 14.0% 9.8% 12.3% 5.8% 3.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.2% 32.1% 26.7% 16.5% 11.8% 12.0% 5.4% 2.9% SHIPS-RII 20.2% 56.6% 45.0% 31.0% 22.8% 33.2% 17.0% 10.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 15.0% 50.1% 42.6% 26.1% 20.9% 12.7% 2.6% 0.6% Logistic Regression 12.8% 20.3% 16.8% 9.6% 6.1% 3.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Bayesian 1.1% 5.5% 3.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 19.0% 54.0% 43.0% 28.0% 24.0% 14.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 09/30/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 23.8% 39.6% 30.2% 24.8% 12.7% 16.5% 6.7% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 25.1% 20.5% 13.5% 8.7% 12.6% 5.9% 3.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.8% 28.7% 22.9% 16.3% 9.7% 13.5% 6.1% 3.1% SHIPS-RII 14.8% 51.2% 42.9% 30.7% 22.0% 33.5% 16.8% 10.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 23.9% 47.8% 35.6% 24.4% 15.8% 28.7% 7.3% 0.7% Logistic Regression 7.5% 18.4% 15.3% 8.5% 4.0% 3.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Bayesian 1.2% 5.7% 3.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 24.0% 56.0% 41.0% 24.0% 19.0% 41.0% 8.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 09/30/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.4% 38.6% 36.2% 35.1% 18.3% 17.0% 5.1% 3.9% SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 21.4% 17.1% 11.3% 6.8% 15.5% 10.9% 4.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.2% 25.6% 21.8% 17.2% 9.6% 15.9% 9.4% 4.1% SHIPS-RII 13.5% 42.3% 34.9% 25.1% 17.6% 40.5% 31.3% 12.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.7% 40.8% 33.6% 28.0% 17.6% 25.5% 8.0% 1.9% Logistic Regression 6.3% 18.2% 14.7% 8.3% 2.5% 5.7% 1.3% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.8% 3.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 43.0% 31.0% 21.0% 17.0% 34.0% 11.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 09/30/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 24.2% 47.9% 38.4% 22.8% 14.3% 20.7% 7.9% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 9.5% 31.1% 24.1% 16.5% 9.2% 20.2% 14.8% 4.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.1% 35.3% 27.7% 18.1% 10.4% 20.3% 13.1% 4.2% SHIPS-RII 16.1% 56.6% 45.6% 34.1% 23.0% 50.0% 41.7% 14.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 25.1% 50.9% 37.2% 24.9% 15.1% 30.8% 17.9% 1.4% Logistic Regression 9.3% 20.9% 15.3% 9.6% 3.7% 7.8% 2.4% 0.3%
Bayesian 3.0% 15.8% 11.5% 5.9% 0.9% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0%
DTOPS 26.0% 54.0% 36.0% 27.0% 16.0% 41.0% 28.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 09/30/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 18.7% 37.2% 30.8% 27.6% 14.6% 18.0% 9.3% 6.2% SHIPS Consensus 9.9% 30.8% 23.3% 15.0% 8.5% 20.3% 18.2% 6.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.1% 32.4% 25.2% 18.1% 10.0% 19.7% 16.0% 6.7% SHIPS-RII 14.2% 45.0% 35.3% 25.2% 16.8% 42.8% 49.2% 20.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 16.8% 42.6% 30.4% 24.3% 13.3% 24.0% 17.6% 3.6% Logistic Regression 12.9% 30.1% 23.5% 14.7% 6.8% 14.6% 4.4% 0.5%
Bayesian 2.7% 17.4% 11.2% 5.2% 1.8% 3.5% 1.1% 0.1%
DTOPS 15.0% 48.0% 30.0% 21.0% 12.0% 30.0% 26.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 09/29/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.9% 27.0% 16.5% 7.0% 3.3% 13.3% 13.8% 12.4% SHIPS Consensus 8.0% 30.5% 20.8% 13.9% 7.5% 20.6% 19.8% 11.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.5% 29.6% 19.7% 12.1% 6.4% 18.7% 18.3% 11.5% SHIPS-RII 13.1% 46.9% 31.8% 24.1% 14.7% 41.1% 49.3% 32.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 12.9% 39.5% 22.2% 13.0% 6.1% 26.1% 23.4% 23.2% Logistic Regression 9.9% 33.4% 24.2% 15.0% 7.2% 16.7% 8.6% 1.3%
Bayesian 1.1% 11.3% 6.5% 2.6% 0.7% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4%
DTOPS 12.0% 52.0% 28.0% 19.0% 9.0% 39.0% 33.0% 34.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Orlene at 09/29/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.4% 25.6% 18.7% 14.1% 11.0% 18.9% 15.0% 7.6% SHIPS Consensus 8.0% 29.3% 19.2% 14.1% 8.8% 20.1% 18.5% 11.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.8% 28.3% 19.0% 14.1% 9.3% 19.8% 17.5% 10.3% SHIPS-RII 11.5% 35.0% 23.2% 22.2% 13.3% 28.7% 40.4% 31.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.7% 32.3% 16.8% 11.5% 7.5% 30.9% 22.5% 20.8% Logistic Regression 11.3% 38.3% 26.7% 17.2% 11.4% 25.0% 11.2% 1.8%
Bayesian 1.1% 14.6% 7.6% 2.9% 1.7% 6.7% 3.8% 0.8%
DTOPS 6.0% 39.0% 15.0% 9.0% 4.0% 43.0% 30.0% 34.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 09/29/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.8% 29.5% 19.0% 15.2% 8.1% 12.4% 4.0% 9.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 29.7% 21.3% 16.2% 8.4% 25.8% 20.4% 11.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.3% 29.6% 20.7% 15.9% 8.3% 22.4% 16.2% 10.9% SHIPS-RII 12.3% 39.7% 27.7% 23.4% 14.0% 34.4% 50.1% 32.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.4% 27.7% 16.5% 12.6% 7.0% 19.7% 13.5% 30.0% Logistic Regression 10.5% 43.0% 32.0% 23.6% 10.8% 41.3% 9.5% 1.5%
Bayesian 0.6% 6.5% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 1.6% 1.5% 0.9%
DTOPS 5.0% 26.0% 14.0% 10.0% 6.0% 27.0% 23.0% 51.0%
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Sixteen at 09/29/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.8% 44.0% 31.3% 23.4% 6.9% 17.1% 10.2% 20.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.3% 31.3% 21.0% 16.3% 2.9% 25.2% 26.3% 15.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.9% 34.5% 23.6% 18.0% 3.9% 23.1% 22.2% 16.7% SHIPS-RII 12.1% 41.9% 26.4% 22.9% 0.0% 30.0% 44.6% 36.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.4% 30.0% 18.6% 14.2% 4.9% 14.0% 14.6% 22.5% Logistic Regression 9.4% 46.2% 33.7% 24.8% 8.6% 41.3% 32.4% 7.3%
Bayesian 0.3% 5.9% 3.0% 1.1% 0.2% 4.3% 1.8% 3.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 16.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 11.0% 19.0% 25.0%
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