Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Julia intensity image current Julia RI diff image

 


Julia at 10/10/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 5.9% 3.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 1.5% 3.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 18.1% 10.5% 2.5% 0.3% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 15.0% 8.6% 2.0% 0.3% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 29.3% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 2.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 1.9% Logistic Regression 1.5% 24.6% 10.6% 7.5% 0.9% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Julia at 10/10/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 174 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.3% 25.8% 13.7% 9.9% 4.8% 6.4% 2.7% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 42.4% 27.2% 20.3% 6.6% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 38.2% 23.8% 17.6% 6.1% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 12.4% 63.0% 37.8% 24.6% 14.9% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 12.9% 6.8% 4.9% 2.4% 3.2% 1.3% 0.8% Logistic Regression 9.5% 60.3% 41.5% 35.4% 4.8% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.3% 3.8% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Julia at 10/10/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.6% 19.2% 7.6% 8.5% 3.5% 3.2% 1.2% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 13.9% 8.2% 7.1% 4.2% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 15.2% 8.0% 7.4% 4.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 7.3% 26.7% 19.5% 17.7% 10.6% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 9.6% 3.8% 4.2% 1.7% 1.6% 0.6% 1.4% Logistic Regression 1.3% 14.6% 4.7% 3.4% 2.1% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Julia at 10/10/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 14.8% 5.0% 5.7% 1.4% 1.5% 0.2% 3.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 21.8% 11.5% 9.8% 4.9% 20.2% 34.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 20.0% 9.9% 8.7% 4.0% 15.5% 25.5% N/A SHIPS-RII 9.7% 43.7% 26.7% 23.0% 13.5% 35.2% 51.8% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 9.4% 3.5% 3.8% 1.7% 1.7% 2.6% 1.5% Logistic Regression 1.1% 19.1% 7.7% 6.2% 1.0% 24.2% 48.1% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 2.2% N/A
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0%
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Julia at 10/09/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 12.2% 2.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 1.2% 4.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 1.4% 2.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 1.3% 3.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.1% 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 4.0% 0.8%
Bayesian 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 7.3%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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