Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Three at 06/13/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/12/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 46 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/12/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 57 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/11/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 75 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/11/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 90 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/11/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 94 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/11/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 94 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/10/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 101 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/10/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 96 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/10/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 96 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 1.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/10/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/09/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 106 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.1% 2.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.0% 2.2% 1.3% 1.1% 0.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 0.6% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 3.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/09/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 107 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/09/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 108 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 4.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.0% 6.0% 3.8% 3.6% 2.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.0% 5.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.9% 5.0% 3.6% 3.2% 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.0% 6.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/09/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 3.5% 2.5% 2.7% 0.7% 5.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 4.9% 6.6% 4.1% 3.5% 2.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.1% 5.6% 3.5% 3.1% 2.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.9% 6.0% 4.2% 3.0% 1.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.9% 7.3% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/08/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 119 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.9% 3.1% 2.5% 1.8% 3.7% 2.0% 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 14.1% 17.8% 13.1% 11.8% 11.4% 6.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.0% 12.9% 9.5% 8.4% 8.8% 4.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 20.8% 18.1% 14.4% 11.9% 11.4% 7.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.4% 17.5% 11.7% 11.7% 11.4% 4.5% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/08/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.7% 18.8% 23.1% 20.9% 6.8% 11.4% 6.1% 5.2% 1.5% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 37.3% 40.1% 33.2% 33.2% 27.8% 15.3% 2.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 31.1% 33.0% 29.8% 29.1% 20.8% 14.0% 3.5% 2.8% 0.5% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 53.0% 41.5% 33.7% 33.7% 24.6% 18.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 21.6% 38.8% 32.7% 32.7% 31.0% 12.5% 4.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/08/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 123 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.9% 37.4% 29.7% 31.2% 28.2% 17.0% 4.4% 12.5% 4.7% 1.2% RIPA Consensus 28.0% 38.2% 28.4% 27.2% 23.5% 14.3% 2.2% 3.7% 0.7% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 24.6% 37.9% 28.8% 28.5% 25.0% 15.2% 2.9% 6.6% 2.0% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 36.9% 37.6% 26.6% 24.1% 17.5% 15.2% 0.0% 2.4% 0.3% 0.2% Logistic Regression 19.2% 38.8% 30.2% 30.2% 29.5% 13.4% 4.5% 5.0% 1.0% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/08/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.7% 13.3% 21.3% 25.2% 18.6% 21.8% 5.9% 18.5% 6.1% 5.1% RIPA Consensus 29.7% 47.1% 38.0% 37.3% 29.9% 20.1% 4.6% 7.0% 1.6% 0.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 26.3% 35.8% 32.4% 33.2% 26.1% 20.6% 5.0% 10.8% 3.0% 2.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 35.1% 42.8% 32.1% 30.7% 17.3% 17.9% 0.0% 5.0% 0.7% 0.2% Logistic Regression 24.3% 51.5% 43.9% 43.9% 42.6% 22.3% 9.1% 9.0% 2.4% 1.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/07/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.0% 32.7% 15.7% 9.3% 8.1% 40.6% 6.9% 22.6% 27.2% 7.8% RIPA Consensus 49.3% 66.5% 58.8% 57.8% 51.6% 39.5% 15.2% 12.8% 5.5% 2.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 37.2% 55.2% 44.4% 41.6% 37.1% 39.8% 12.4% 16.0% 12.7% 4.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 55.9% 60.8% 48.9% 46.9% 36.5% 29.9% 0.0% 9.8% 3.0% 1.3% Logistic Regression 42.7% 72.2% 68.8% 68.8% 66.7% 49.1% 30.3% 15.8% 8.0% 4.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/07/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.3% 47.8% 25.2% 27.0% 9.9% 37.0% 10.5% 33.2% 9.4% 33.0% RIPA Consensus 42.5% 71.0% 62.8% 59.3% 54.9% 47.6% 20.5% 17.7% 9.0% 4.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 31.1% 63.2% 50.2% 48.5% 39.9% 44.0% 17.1% 22.8% 9.1% 13.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 46.8% 64.7% 52.9% 45.9% 38.4% 35.6% 0.0% 14.5% 6.1% 2.5% Logistic Regression 38.3% 77.2% 72.6% 72.6% 71.4% 59.6% 41.0% 20.8% 12.0% 6.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/07/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.3% 67.9% 37.9% 39.8% 21.5% 56.7% 20.5% 43.4% 33.8% 40.6% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.7% 57.9% 38.2% 35.7% 27.5% 45.8% 17.4% 27.8% 19.5% 20.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/07/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.9% 59.3% 23.8% 11.8% 7.2% 53.9% 15.1% 39.6% 23.9% 57.8% RIPA Consensus 10.5% 52.4% 35.2% 30.6% 27.3% 46.4% 19.9% 30.6% 18.8% 17.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.9% 54.6% 31.3% 24.3% 20.6% 48.9% 18.2% 33.6% 20.4% 30.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.1% 41.5% 23.0% 14.0% 7.4% 32.2% 0.0% 30.4% 18.4% 19.5% Logistic Regression 12.8% 63.3% 47.4% 47.2% 47.2% 60.7% 39.7% 30.9% 19.1% 15.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Guchol at 06/06/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.0% 36.3% 16.2% 13.6% 18.1% 46.9% 6.4% 25.0% 18.3% 38.7% RIPA Consensus 8.6% 50.5% 33.2% 28.2% 27.0% 48.9% 23.4% 36.8% 25.2% 20.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.0% 45.7% 27.5% 23.3% 24.0% 48.1% 17.7% 32.8% 22.9% 26.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.7% 36.9% 19.3% 9.7% 7.3% 30.7% 0.0% 34.6% 21.3% 20.7% Logistic Regression 11.5% 64.1% 47.1% 46.7% 46.7% 67.0% 46.8% 39.0% 29.1% 20.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Three at 06/06/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.1% 52.8% 27.4% 9.8% 4.4% 47.0% 11.7% 33.8% 25.3% 61.2% RIPA Consensus 9.3% 49.0% 31.2% 25.8% 25.8% 50.7% 20.9% 39.9% 28.6% 29.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.5% 50.2% 29.9% 20.4% 18.6% 49.4% 17.8% 37.8% 27.4% 39.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.4% 39.3% 23.9% 13.0% 13.0% 37.6% 0.0% 40.7% 24.8% 31.5% Logistic Regression 9.2% 58.8% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 63.8% 41.7% 39.1% 32.3% 26.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Three at 06/06/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.5% 43.1% 17.9% 12.6% 9.2% 32.1% 21.8% 39.0% 32.3% 65.1% RIPA Consensus 9.0% 58.0% 36.0% 29.1% 26.7% 60.0% 30.8% 53.9% 40.1% 52.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.2% 53.0% 29.9% 23.6% 20.8% 50.7% 27.8% 48.9% 37.5% 56.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.7% 49.0% 26.2% 13.1% 8.2% 41.9% 0.0% 50.5% 24.8% 53.1% Logistic Regression 10.4% 67.1% 45.8% 45.2% 45.2% 78.2% 61.6% 57.3% 55.5% 52.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Three at 06/06/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.9% 32.6% 12.1% 3.0% 8.4% 23.7% 18.0% 38.2% 18.8% 78.1% RIPA Consensus 4.1% 47.4% 26.1% 19.3% 18.3% 57.8% 29.6% 58.2% 47.4% 64.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.0% 42.4% 21.4% 13.8% 15.0% 46.4% 25.7% 51.5% 37.8% 69.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.6% 36.0% 16.0% 5.2% 3.3% 38.4% 0.0% 51.4% 31.1% 61.9% Logistic Regression 5.6% 58.7% 36.2% 33.3% 33.3% 77.2% 59.1% 64.9% 63.7% 67.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Past 2023 W Pacific TCs