Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Eleven intensity image current Eleven RI diff image

 


Kirogi at 09/05/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 2.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9%
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Kirogi at 09/05/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 2.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.6%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 1.0%
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Kirogi at 09/04/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 122 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 2.0% 0.0% 4.9% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 4.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 2.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 1.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 3.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 2.0% 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% 2.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3%
Logistic Regression 1.8% 7.8% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 5.2% 0.9% 1.5% 0.6% 1.5%
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Kirogi at 09/04/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 5.5% 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 2.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 4.3% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
Logistic Regression 1.9% 10.1% 3.4% 3.1% 3.1% 5.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6%
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Eleven at 09/04/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 119 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 7.1% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 5.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% 3.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 1.1% 12.9% 4.6% 4.2% 4.2% 10.0% 2.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6%
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Eleven at 09/04/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 4.1% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 4.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 2.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 7.6% 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 8.0% 1.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4%
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Kirogi at 09/03/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 117 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 6.5% 1.7% 2.7% 1.1% 1.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 4.3% 1.0% 1.9% 0.7% 1.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.8%
Logistic Regression 0.6% 8.0% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 12.1% 3.3% 4.2% 2.0% 2.6%
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Kirogi at 09/03/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 4.2% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 6.7% 2.4% 2.0% 1.8% 10.6% 2.7% 4.2% 2.0% 2.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 5.0% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 7.0% 1.8% 3.0% 1.3% 2.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 3.0% 1.3% 1.5%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 12.1% 4.2% 3.6% 3.6% 18.6% 5.4% 5.3% 2.6% 2.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirogi at 09/03/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 3.7% 0.8% 2.9% 1.0% 1.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 2.6% 0.5% 2.0% 0.7% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 1.7% 0.4% 1.4%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 3.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 7.1% 1.5% 4.1% 1.6% 1.9%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirogi at 09/03/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 4.9% 1.0% 5.5% 2.5% 18.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 3.3% 0.6% 3.8% 1.6% 12.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 4.9% 2.6% 24.5%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 5.8% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 9.0% 1.9% 6.1% 2.4% 11.5%
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Kirogi at 09/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 2.2% 0.4% 2.4% 0.6% 6.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 1.5% 0.2% 1.6% 0.4% 4.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 7.4%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 3.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 4.0% 0.7% 3.4% 1.1% 5.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirogi at 09/02/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 117 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.5% 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 2.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 1.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.4%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 2.8% 0.4% 1.9% 0.6% 2.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirogi at 09/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirogi at 09/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirogi at 09/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 122 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 1.4% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 5.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 3.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 7.6%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 3.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 2.5% 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 2.9%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirogi at 09/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 2.5% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirogi at 09/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirogi at 08/31/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 130 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.6% 3.5% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirogi at 08/31/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 2.2% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 2.9% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 1.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 2.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.4% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%
Logistic Regression 0.6% 4.1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirogi at 08/31/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.7% 12.8% 12.1% 12.7% 16.8% 11.0% 9.0% 5.8% 3.5% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 12.9% 27.9% 16.2% 15.0% 11.2% 11.7% 2.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.4% 22.8% 14.8% 14.2% 13.0% 11.5% 4.5% 3.3% 1.4% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 18.6% 28.5% 17.2% 14.9% 8.1% 8.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2%
Logistic Regression 7.1% 27.2% 15.2% 15.2% 14.3% 14.8% 4.6% 3.9% 0.8% 1.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirogi at 08/31/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.5% 16.0% 14.1% 11.6% 6.9% 16.6% 18.5% 5.4% 6.8% 2.5% RIPA Consensus 14.2% 29.7% 16.1% 13.5% 12.8% 14.7% 3.0% 3.3% 0.7% 1.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.2% 25.1% 15.4% 12.9% 10.8% 15.3% 8.1% 3.9% 2.6% 1.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 19.7% 29.6% 16.3% 11.1% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 1.0%
Logistic Regression 8.6% 29.8% 16.0% 16.0% 15.0% 18.7% 5.9% 4.8% 1.2% 2.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirogi at 08/30/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.1% 13.9% 6.9% 6.3% 9.0% 13.7% 11.4% 5.2% 4.6% 6.7% RIPA Consensus 8.3% 25.9% 11.5% 10.7% 10.6% 14.2% 2.7% 7.4% 2.4% 5.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.4% 24.2% 11.0% 9.6% 9.6% 9.9% 0.0% 6.9% 2.5% 6.8%
Logistic Regression 6.3% 27.6% 11.9% 11.8% 11.6% 18.6% 5.4% 7.9% 2.3% 4.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Eleven at 08/30/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.8% 27.9% 8.5% 7.0% 3.7% 11.1% 8.9% 10.2% 3.8% 33.0% RIPA Consensus 9.2% 52.5% 26.8% 24.5% 24.5% 39.1% 9.0% 34.4% 18.1% 39.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.4% 44.2% 20.7% 18.6% 17.5% 29.7% 8.9% 26.3% 13.3% 37.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.5% 49.6% 21.7% 17.3% 17.3% 33.8% 0.0% 40.0% 24.8% 56.3%
Logistic Regression 10.0% 55.3% 31.9% 31.7% 31.7% 44.4% 18.0% 28.7% 11.4% 22.9%
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Eleven at 08/30/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 13.7% 60.9% 33.7% 23.9% 22.1% 34.2% 8.6% 19.4% 15.9% 32.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.5% 60.6% 31.5% 13.1% 9.5% 25.5% 0.0% 24.7% 24.7% 51.7%
Logistic Regression 15.0% 61.2% 36.0% 34.8% 34.8% 43.0% 17.2% 14.1% 7.1% 14.1%
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Eleven at 08/30/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.1% 31.3% 27.1% 6.7% 6.8% 22.6% 12.8% 13.5% 13.9% 30.1% RIPA Consensus 6.7% 65.7% 37.2% 29.4% 25.4% 61.7% 31.9% 59.0% 54.7% 69.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.8% 54.1% 33.8% 21.8% 19.1% 48.6% 25.5% 43.8% 41.1% 56.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.4% 59.0% 23.0% 9.8% 3.1% 41.9% 0.0% 51.8% 48.1% 61.9%
Logistic Regression 10.0% 72.3% 51.4% 48.9% 47.6% 81.5% 63.7% 66.2% 61.3% 77.6%
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