WTIO31 PGTW 082100 2004129 2010 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z7 --- NEAR 14.0N5 72.9E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N5 72.9E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 14.7N2 72.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 15.8N4 70.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 16.9N6 69.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 17.9N7 68.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 19.4N4 66.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM --- REMARKS: 082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.2N7 72.7E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH OF BOMBAY, INDIA HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS CYCLING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM INDIA. TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAI, AFWA MM5 AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2, 090900Z8, 091500Z5 AND 092100Z2.// wxtlist.k: done