WTXS31 PGTW 210900 AMD 2003355 1114 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 032A AMENDED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z9 --- NEAR 34.3S0 43.8E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 34.3S0 43.8E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 37.8S8 50.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 35.2S0 45.5E4. THIS WARNING HAS BEEN AMENDED BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING THE INTENSITY TO BE HIGHER. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND A 210324Z2 QUIKSCAT PASS OF 50 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT TC 03S IS TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TO BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DEBBIE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// wxtlist.k: done