WTXS31 PGTW 070900 2004067 0825 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z3 --- NEAR 15.1S7 49.3E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 49.3E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 16.0S7 46.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 17.4S2 45.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 19.1S1 44.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 20.9S1 44.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.3S9 48.7E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS AND A WEAKENING TREND. VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT EROSION OF THE SOUTH- WESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR'S TERRAIN. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TOTHE SOUTHEAST. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TRANSITION TC 16S INTO A MORE POLWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY FOR TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON EGRR AND NOGAPS DUE TO BETTER INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 AND 080900Z7.// wxtlist.k: done