WTPZ42 KNHC 240829                                              2005175 0830
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2005

HIGH-RESOLUTION DATA FROM A 0143Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE
HIGHEST WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION WERE ABOUT 25 KT.  THIS VALUE WILL
BE USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY...BUT THE CYCLONE MAY BE EVEN
WEAKER THAN THAT BY NOW.  A SPORADIC PUFF OR TWO OF DEEP CONVECTION
MAY STILL OCCUR WITHIN THE SYSTEM...BUT DISSIPATION TO A REMNANT
LOW IS CALLED FOR IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9...MAINLY BASED ON CONTINUITY SINCE
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  LITTLE CHANGE
IS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE
LOW-LEVEL STEERING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED IS
PREDICTED.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BEATRIZ'S REMNANT LOW
WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE BEFORE BEING PULLED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD
OR SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A TRAILING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/0900Z 17.5N 112.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 17.7N 113.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 17.9N 114.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 17.9N 115.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.7N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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