WTPZ44 KNHC 052050                                              2005186 2050
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005

DORA HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY THE
LARGE SCATTER IN THE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES...AND THERE IS
ALSO A LARGE RANGE IN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
ALSO REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUE TO STEER
DORA WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE BAM MODELS CONSENSUS...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED
QUITE WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR.
THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ANY OF WHICH COULD BRIEFLY SPIN UP THE CIRCULATION TO
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD
BE FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HOURS WHEN
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COLD WATER.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/2100Z 18.5N 105.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 18.9N 106.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 19.2N 108.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 19.6N 110.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 19.9N 112.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$
wxtlist.k: done