WTPZ45 KNHC 200841                                              2005201 0841
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2005

EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICTED THAT EUGENE HAS BECOME AN
EXPOSED CIRCULATION...WITH REMAINING WEAK CONVECTION CONFINED WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER HAS ALSO
BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER
WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN EUGENE TO A REMNANT SWIRL OF CLOUDS DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...OR LESS. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 2.0
(30 KT) TO 2.5 (35 KT). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A MODEST 40
KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING WITH
DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY RAPID
WEAKENING TREND EUGENE IS EXPERIENCING...ADVISORIES MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

BASED OFF OF THE PREVIOUS MICROWAVE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/10. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....WITH A
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITHIN THE LOW/MID STEERING FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.


FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0900Z 21.1N 111.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 21.8N 112.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 22.5N 114.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 23.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 23.2N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$
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