WTPZ41 KNHC 160234                                              2005228 0234
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FERNANDA REMAINS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR NEARLY 18
HOURS. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 25 KT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AND FERNANDA IS CARRIED AS A REMNANT LOW
THROUGH 72 HOURS.

NOW THAT FERNANDA IS SHALLOW...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION HAS ENSUED AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 270/10.  FERNANDA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BASED ON THE PRESENT MOTION AND IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE BAMS MODEL.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/0300Z 17.2N 135.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 136.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 16.8N 138.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 16.6N 141.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 16.5N 143.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 16.5N 147.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$
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