WTPA44 PHFO 291455                                              2005272 1455
TCDCP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  60
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
500 AM HST THU SEP 29 2005
COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT KENNETH NO
LONGER HAD ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR HIS CENTER. THEREFORE...A DATA
T COULD NOT BE COMPUTED...LEAVING US WITH A FINAL T BASED ON MET.
AFTER APPLYING DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PHFO JTWC AND GWC CONTINUED BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0...OR FROM 25 TO
30 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT...MAKING KENNETH A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.
KENNETH REMAINS ON A COURSE JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST...OR 280/10. THE
OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE DIVIDED INTO TWO CAMPS. ONE CONSISTING OF THE
GLOBAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS...AND BAMS KEEP KENNETH MOVING TO THE
WEST. THE REMAINING AIDS HAVE KENNETH WANDERING OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE FIRST BUNCH...
PUTTING KENNETH AS A REMNANT LOW JUST NORTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
FRIDAY AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE TRACK IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT...WITH SHIP AND DSHIP STRENGTHENING
KENNETH WHILE THE REST EITHER WEAKEN OR MAINTAIN HIM AT HIS PRESENT
INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WEAKENS THE SYSTEM TO A
25 KT REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS THEN KEEPS IT THERE THROUGH 96 HOURS.

FORECASTER CRAIG


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/1500Z 19.0N 149.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 19.3N 150.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 19.8N 152.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 20.3N 155.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 21.0N 157.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 22.7N 163.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 25.0N 168.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW


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