WTXS31 PGTW 200900  
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DAREN) WARNING NR 006    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z8 --- NEAR 16.0S7 71.9E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 71.9E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 17.1S9 69.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 18.0S9 66.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 18.8S7 63.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 19.4S4 60.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 71.2E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DAREN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
885 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. RE-
CENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS BE-
COMING DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER A HIGHER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET EACH OTHER AND TC 11S IS FORE-
CAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200600Z8 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 AND
210900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARN-
INGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE HOURLY UPDATES.//

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