WTNT44 KNHC 090858                                              2005252 0859
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

MARIA CONTINUES TO BE QUITE RESILIENT AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND AN EYE-LIKE
FEATURE.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AND ARE NOW UNANIMOUSLY T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT.
EVEN THOUGH MARIA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVE COOLER WATER...THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE STILL IMPLIES A PRIMARILY WARM CORE STRUCTURE.
ACCORDINGLY...MARIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TROPICAL IN NATURE
THROUGH 12 HOURS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THEREAFTER.  DURING THE
TRANSITION...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A LARGE AND
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS TO HURRICANE-FORCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  MARIA
SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE POLEWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONG
TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/0900Z 40.2N  44.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 41.2N  42.2W    55 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 43.6N  39.6W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 46.8N  36.8W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 50.4N  34.2W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 57.1N  28.9W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     13/0600Z 62.0N  24.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     14/0600Z 64.5N  18.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$
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