WTPS31 PGTW 160900 2005047 0844 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z3 --- NEAR 22.0S4 159.3W8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 159.3W8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z6 --- 23.8S3 158.8W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z4 --- 25.9S6 157.9W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z7 --- 28.0S0 156.3W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z5 --- 29.9S0 153.5W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8 159.2W7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A RAPID DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCU- LATION CENTER. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TRANSIENT MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 AND 170900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// wxtlist.k: done