WTNT45 KNHC 041438                                              2005277 1439
TCDAT5
HURRICANE STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005

ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE CENTER POSTITION IS UNCERTAIN...BASED ON
CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 10Z...STAN SHOULD BE JUST
INLAND OF THE COASTLINE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER
COULD BE SOMEWHAT FARTHER INLAND...BUT SINCE DECOUPLING OF THE LOW
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IS POSSIBLE IN RESPONSE TO THE TERRAIN OF
MEXICO...I PREFER TO STAY WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION FOR THE
SURFACE CENTER. CONTINUITY OF THIS TRACK...WITH A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.
THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA NEAR 10Z INDICATED AN INTENSITY OF 70
KT.  WHILE THERE WAS A BURST OF VERY COLD CONVECTION SINCE
THEN...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE
AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED DETERIORATION OF THE EYEWALL ON THEIR LAST
PAST.  BALANCING THESE FACTORS LEADS ME TO HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 70
KT.  A RAPID DECAY OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
MOVES INLAND OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO.
STAN POSES A VERY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT...AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD-SLIDES ARE VERY LIKELY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/1500Z 18.6N  95.1W    70 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 18.3N  95.7W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 18.0N  96.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$
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