WTXS31 PGTW 022100                                              2006061 2052
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 77.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 77.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 20.2S 77.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 20.7S 77.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 77.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING
POLEWARD OF TC 14S HAS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISPLACED
THE CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM CENTER. A 021540Z SSMI
PASS DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
NEARLY 135 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION. SINCE THE LLCC
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EQUATORWARD OF THE CONVECTION, TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER RATHER THAN COMPLETE AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET.//
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