WTPS31 PGTW 081500 2003159 1449 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (GINA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z1 --- NEAR 18.3S2 163.3E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 163.3E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 19.8S8 166.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 21.2S5 169.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 164.0E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. TC 29P HAS LINKED UP WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOW RECURVING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED FROM SYSTEM LEAVING AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 29P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RECURVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5, AND THE AUSTRALIAN TLAPS AND TCLAPS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. AFWA MM5 AND TLAPS CONTINUE TO HAVE TC 29P TRACK NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO PROBABLE EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION IN THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, AND MANY OF THE STATISTICAL AND CLIMO AIDS SUPPORT RECURVATURE WHICH IS WHAT PERSISTENCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN SUGGEST. THE NOGAPS AID (NGPI) ALSO SHOWS A SOLUTION TO THE NORTHWEST SIMILAR TO AFWA BUT A CLOSER ANALYSIS OF THE FIELDS REVEALS THAT THE VORTEX RECURVES. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON AFWA MM5 AND TLAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2.// wxtlist.k: done