WXTLIST WMO=AXNT20 AXNT20 KNHC 201047 2025201 1047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Jul 20 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new far eastern Atlantic tropical wave was introduced 23W from 06 to 17N based on the SUNY-Albany Tropical Trough Diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm west of the wave from 11N to 13N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 40W from 05N to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 07N to 13N. The tropical wave that was previously near 89W has moved well inland the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America. This wave is being described in the eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Discussion. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Western Sahara and Mauritania, then curves southwestward to 11N35W to 09N40W to a 1012 mb low near 08N44W and to 08N46W. Scattered moderate to isolate strong convection is seen within 120 nm south of the trough between 24W and 29w. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 24W and 29W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near western Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Bay of Campeche and in the far southwestern Gulf. Another surface trough across the spine of Florida is inducing isolated thunderstorms offshore of Naples. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high at the northeastern Gulf continues to dominate much of the Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh northeast to southeast winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft exist at the Florida Straits, Bay of Campeche and northwestern Gulf. Gentle southeast to south winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through the middle of the next week producing gentle to moderate winds along with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening well into the upcoming week as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. Looking ahead, winds may increase to fresh speeds across the NE Gulf by Thu as broad low pressure moves across the southeastern U.S. before possibly moving from E to W across the northern Gulf. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the eastern and north- central Gulf waters starting Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are evident at the south-central and part of the southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted at the north-central basin, lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist at the rest of the northwestern basin. Moderate with locally fresh northeast to east winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over and near the southwest section of Haiti and near eastern Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas are expected to begin again in the Windward Passage starting Tue night and continue through late in the week. A tropical wave is expected to move into the Tropical N Atlantic Tue through Wed, then move across the eastern Caribbean and the eastern part of the central Caribbean Wed night through Thu night. This wave is likely to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over these waters in addition to being accompanied by fresh to strong trades near its northern portion. An area of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms related to a weak low pressure is likely to precede the wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge extends southwestward from a 1027 mb high that is over the north central Atlantic through 31N45W and to a 1022 mb high off eastern Florida near 29N76W. These features are promoting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 26N between 50W and the Florida east coast. Farther south from 10N to 26N between 50W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, and farther east from 10N to 31N between 35W and 50W, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds with 4 to 6 ft seas dominate. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh southeast to south winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will dominate the weather pattern across the forecast region through the early part of the upcoming week. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow will prevail along with moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas are expected to begin again in the Windward Passage starting Tue night and continue through late in the week. Winds will diminish slightly into Tue evening as high pressure weakens over the western Atlantic, and a frontal boundary moves to over the offshore waters of northeastern Florida. This front will then stall, with low pressure possibly forming along it. $$ Aguirre WXTLIST: done