WXTLIST WMO=AXNT20
AXNT20 KNHC 092203                                              2024253 2204
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Sep 10 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Francine is centered near in the western Gulf of
Mexico near 24.0N 96.0W at 09/2100 UTC, or 130 nm SSE of mouth of
the Rio Grande, moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is observed within 150 nm in the
northern semicircle of Francine. A slow north- northwestward
motion is expected through tonight, followed by a faster motion
to the northeast beginning on Tuesday. On the forecast track,
Francine is expected to be just offshore of the northern Gulf
Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the Louisiana and
Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday. Additional intensification is
expected over the next day with more significant intensification
forecast on Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Francine is expected to
become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow morning. There is a danger
of life-threatening storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas
and Louisiana coastlines where a Storm Surge Warning is now in
effect. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico,
the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, southern Louisiana, and
southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.  A risk of flash and
urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from
Wednesday into Friday morning.
Please consult products from your local weather office. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Six
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A 1010 mb area of low pressure
near 15N41W is producing a few showers within 120 nm to the
north of the center. Fresh to strong winds are found in the
northern semicircle and peak seas are near 8 ft. Environmental conditions are ma
rginally conducive
for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form while the system meanders over the central tropical
Atlantic.  By the middle part of the week, the system is forecast
to move west-northwestward at around 10 kt. The chance of
development over the next 48 hours and 7 days is medium. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov
for details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic near 18N, from 05N to
19N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 11N
to 13N between 17W and 19W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are present from 12N
to 14N and between 50W and 55W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W, south of 22N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is enhancing the shower
activity in the Dominican Republic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
The Gambia near 13N17W and continues westward to a 1010 mb low
pres near 13N32W and then to a 1010 mb low pres (AL92) near 12N32W
to Invest AL92, which is a 1010 mb low pressure area near 15N41W,
and to 13N54W. The ITCZ extends from 11N54W to 13N61W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 09N to 12N
to 22W and 29W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Francine in the SW Gulf of Mexico.
Outside of the influence of Francine, a stationary frontal
boundary is draped across north-central Florida and the northern
Gulf waters. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm on both
sides of this boundary. The remainder of the basin is under drier
conditions, especially the SE Gulf. The pressure gradient between
Francine and the ridge centered over the central and eastern
United States support moderate to fresh NE winds in the NW Gulf
waters, while moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
6-9 ft in the NW Gulf, while slight to moderate seas are noted in
the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, Francine will strengthen to a hurricane near
24.8N 96.4W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts
80 kt, to near 25.9N 95.9W Tue afternoon, to near 27.4N 94.7W late
Tue night with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near
29.4N 92.8W Wed afternoon, then weaken to a tropical storm near
31.8N 91.3W Thu morning. Francine is then forecast to move inland
and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.2N 90.8W Thu
afternoon. Francine will become post-tropical well north of
the region Fri afternoon. Associated rough to very rough seas
will persist off the coast of Veracruz and Tamaulipas through this
early this evening. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish
across the Gulf Thu through Fri, however westerly swell will
impact the southeastern Gulf Thu through Fri. High pressure will
become established over the north-central Gulf Sat and Sat night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a
Tropical Wave moving across the central Caribbean.
Divergence aloft due to an upper level low centered between
Bermuda and Puerto Rico, low-level wind convergence and abundant
moisture combine to support showers and isolated thunderstorms
over mainly the Windward Islands and nearby waters. This rain
activity may result in localized flooding, especially in low-lying
areas. Similarly, the interaction between an upper level low off
western Costa Rica and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough result
in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW
Caribbean, especially south of 15N and west of 75W. Generally
drier conditions are noted elsewhere in the basin.
A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean sustains moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds over much of the region, especially
north of 12N and west of 65W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft.
Elsewhere light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.
For the forecast, a tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea
near 73W will move across the remainder of the Caribbean through
the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore
eastern Honduras from the afternoons into the early mornings Tue
and Wed. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the
south- central Caribbean with mainly gentle to moderate trades
elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for details on low pres
AL92 in the central Atlantic.
A stationary front extends from 31N76W to NE Florida, supporting
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 29N and
between 70W and 75W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is
under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned well
north of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
seas of 4-6 ft are evident south of 26N and between 60W and 77W.
Farther east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds are affecting the
waters north of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. Seas are 4-7
ft in the area described. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of
5-7 ft are occurring south of the monsoon trough and east of 30W.
Stronger winds and higher seas can be expected with the stronger
storms in the area. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front may make some
southward progress before stalling from NW of Bermuda to near
Cape Canaveral, Florida by Wed, with slightly higher winds and
seas N of it. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds
should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the
Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through
tonight. Mainly slight to moderate seas will prevail through the
next few days.
$$
Christensen
WXTLIST: done