WXTLIST WMO=AXNT20
AXNT20 KNHC 230609                                              2022143 0609
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon May 23 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W from 12N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: A Saharan Air Layer
Outbreak is limiting the precipitation. Any nearby precipitation
is part of the monsoon trough/ITCZ precipitation.
A surface trough curves from 07N40W to 04N42W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from the ITCZ to 09N
between 39W and 48W.
A second surface trough curves from 09N53W to 06N56W at the
coast of Suriname. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 180 nm to the northwest of the surface
trough.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm on either
side of the tropical wave. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is inland within 210 nm on either side of the tropical
wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 06N23W. The ITCZ is along 05N25W 02N30W, to the
Equator along 40W, and to the Equator along 47W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 06N between
28W and 32W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 10N southward between 07W and 20W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 12N
southward from 60W eastward.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 29N88W. A surface trough
extends from SW coastal Alabama, through the 1014 mb low
pressure center, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the Florida
Panhandle, about 150 nm to the northeast of the 1014 mb low
pressure center. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
elsewhere within 90 nm of the 1014 mb low pressure center.
Scattered strong is from 90 nm to 150 nm to the west of the
surface trough from 21N to 25N. Scattered strong is from 20N
southward between 92W and 93W in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, to the north of an inland Mexico surface trough that is
in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The surface
pressures remain high. Strong
upper level winds should prevent significant development, before
this system moves inland, to the central Gulf Coast later
tonight or on Monday. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected to continue in parts of the central Gulf Coast, and
will spread into the southeast U.S.A. during the next day or so.
Additional information about the rainfall and the flooding
potential can be
found in statements that are issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office, and the Excessive Rainfall
Outlooks that are issued by the Weather Prediction Center.
A cold front passes through south central coastal Louisiana, to
26N94W, to NE Mexico. The front curves northwestward into
Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is elsewhere from 90W westward. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.
Earlier strong convective precipitation during the past 12 hours
has produced strong and gusty winds, falling to less than gale
force this morning. The seas remain rough, and are estimated to
range from 6 feet to 9 feet in much of the north central and
northwestern Gulf.
A trough reaches from low pressure off the western Florida
Panhandle to the northwest Yucatan Peninsula. Clusters of strong
thunderstorms are in the west central Gulf just west of the
trough. The low will move onshore overnight, and the trough will
shift northwest of the basin through Mon night. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds will persist Tue and Wed with moderate seas.
Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into the western
Gulf Thu and weaken as it reaches from the NE
Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. It will be followed
by gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas Fri.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Heavy Rainfall in Central America and in SE Mexico:
Broad surface low pressure has been in this area during the last
few days. Periods of heavy rain during this time period has been
reaching many areas of Central America. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is to the
west of the line that runs from SE Cuba to western Jamaica, to
Panama along 80W. Additional periods of moderate to heavy rain,
including locally heavy to extreme rain, are expected during the
next few days in the aforementioned areas. Expect also the
potential for localized areas of flash flooding and mudslides,
especially in mountainous terrain. This is a slowly-moving
weather system. High atmospheric moisture content is expected in
the aforementioned areas during the next several days. Please,
refer to bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local
or national meteorological agency for more information.
Strong high pressure in the SW N Atlantic Ocean is supporting
fresh to strong E to SE winds in most of the basin W of 67W, and
strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea. The wave
heights range from 5 feet to 9 feet in the western half of the
area. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 11 feet in the
central part of the area. Stable conditions, and Saharan Air,
cover most of the Caribbean Sea from 80W eastward, leading to
fair and hazy skies.
Fresh to strong east to southeast winds in parts of the south
central and northwestern Caribbean Sea, due to the pressure
gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressure
in southern Mexico, will diminish some on Mon and Mon night,
then more on Tue as the gradient weakens. Fresh to strong east
to southeast winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras and off Colombia into mid-week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front passes through 31N45W to 27N56W, to 26N59W and
27N66W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm to the
east and southeast of the cold front, and within 180 nm to the
north of the cold front.
A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 30N72W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is to the west of the cold front. A 1026
mb high pressure center is near 35N26W. A surface ridge extends
from the 1026 mb high pressure center through 30N30W, to 23N50W,
and to 23N60W.
The wave heights in the trade wind region range from 5 feet to 7
feet, except for the range from 7 feet to 8 feet offshore of
Trinidad and Tobago. Saharan Air, and suspended dust, cover much
of the trade wind region and into the eastern Caribbean Sea.
High pressure extending from near Bermuda west-southwest to just
east of the southeastern U.S. will remain nearly stationary
through Tue while it gradually weakens. It will shift eastward
Thu through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move
across the southeastern U.S. The associated
pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to moderate winds
across the region through the period, except for pulsing of
moderate to fresh east winds between Hispaniola and the
southeastern Bahamas through Tue night. Moderate northeast swell
may impact the waters east of 60W through Tue, then subside into
Wed.
$$
mt/ec
WXTLIST: done