WXTLIST WMO=AXPZ20 AXPZ20 KNHC 140340 2024319 0340 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Nov 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: Persistent SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. Latest model guidance indicates that the present moderate SW flow offshore Costa Rica and Panama is expected to increase toward the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend as a developing tropical disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea. The abundant tropical moisture is forecast to provide a focus for potentially heavy rainfall to occur in Costa Rica and in western Panama. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for details. Large swell over the eastern Pacific: A new swell event is reaching the NW corner of the forecast region in the wake of a cold front. Seas are forecast to build again to 12 to 14 ft across the waters north of 20N W of 120W Thu into Fri, with wave heights to 12 ft persisting in a combination of NW swell and shorter-period NE seas due to increasing trade wind flow from 15N to 20N west of 130W into Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event is expected in the Gulf of Tehunatepec starting Thu morning as high pressure surges southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are forecast to increase to minimal gale- force speeds by Thu morning. Seas are forecast to build to 12 or 13 ft with this event. Seas generated from this gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 10N95W by Fri afternoon. Winds are predicted to diminish below gale force by late Fri morning, but strong northerly winds will persist through Fri night. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu through Fri should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border near 11N86W, to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N108W, to 1010 mb low near 10N117W to 1011 mb low near 08N127W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 10N to 13N between 95W and 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Large NW swell continues to propagate through the waters off Baja California Norte. An earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated seas of 10 to 14 ft north of Punta Eugenia likely in NW swell. Satellite derived wind data show mainly moderate NW to N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, and moderate to locally fresh NW winds in the Gulf of California. Mostly light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with the exception of gentle to moderate N winds in the Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 13N. Seas are in generally 4 to 6 ft, except 8 to 11 ft across the outer waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. For the forecast, a Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure building behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico on Thu will support minimal gale force winds and rough seas in the Tehuantepec region Thu morning through Fri morning. Farther north, the large NW swell event moving through the waters off Baja California Norte will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight, and reach Clarion Island on Thu. A cold front will move into Baja California Norte by late Thu, then weaken and dissipate by late Fri. Expect fresh SW to W winds in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Thu night, becoming fresh NW winds Fri as the front moves through the region. Looking ahead, another round of reinforcing NW swell will follow the front, reaching the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro on Fri, and Clarion Island on Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted per earlier scatterometer data across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama, including the Gulf of Panama. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range, except in the Gulf of Panama where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail. For the forecast, a moderate to fresh SW flow is forecast across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama, including the Gulf of Panama Thu through Sun. This wind flow will be supported by a developing tropical disturbance over the NW Caribbean. Farther north, large northerly swell related to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night through Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features sections for details about large swell over the eastern Pacific. A cold front is moving across the far NW corner of the forecast region, and extends from 30N132W to 28N140W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and a new swell event follow the front. Building high pressure in the wake of the front is supporting a broad area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the region north of 10N and mainly west of 125W. These winds are accompanied by large NW swell described above in the Special Features section. In addition, an earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated seas of 8 to 10 ft across the waters 06N to 10N between 110W and 115W associated with mix of NW swell and wind waves due to fresh NE flow along the monsoon trough, and related to a low pressure area that is pulsing along the monsoon trough. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the low pressure centers located along the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the above mentioned cold front will move across the waters north of 20N through Fri while weakening. Long-period NW swell behind the front will reinforce the existing field of swell across the waters ultimately extending as far as south of 05N and west of 105W through Sun. Wave heights to 14 ft can be expected north of 20N through at least Fri night. Fresh to strong trade winds will also cover the basin N of 10N and west of 110W as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. $$ Christensen WXTLIST: done