WXTLIST WMO=AXPZ20 AXPZ20 KNHC 221605 2025173 1605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jun 22 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis has been repositioned and analyzed along 85W, from the Gulf of Honduras southward through Central America and into the eastern Pacific to 08N. Scattered to numerous strong convection is occurring from 06N to 14N between 84W and 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to a 1011 mb low centered near 08N90W to 16N108W to 10N120W to a 1012 mb low centered near 13N137W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N east of 83W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to 13N between 100W and 107W, and from 07N to 09N between 112W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough has been analyzed from the northern Gulf of California through Baja California and southward to 21N112W, and high pressure prevails over the southwestern United States. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh SE to SW winds through the Gulf of California and associated seas of 2 to 5 ft, with seas to 6 ft in the far northern Gulf. Elsewhere, a 1035 mb high centered northwest of the area near 38N147W extends ridging through the waters offshore of Baja. Moderate to fresh NW winds are ongoing in this region. Recent altimeter satellite data reveal seas of 8 to 11 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro, with the highest seas noted north of 29N. Farther south, gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas in mixed northwest and south swell prevail offshore of southern and southwestern Mexico. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will pulse offshore of Baja California through Mon morning before winds diminish slightly through midweek. Rough seas north of Cabo San Lazaro are expected into Mon before seas slowly subside by Mon night. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh SE to SW winds will continue to pulse into Tue as troughing prevails over the region. Locally strong winds will be possible in the northern Gulf Mon night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through midweek as low pressure strengthens to the south. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The southern extent of a tropical wave passing through Honduras and Nicaragua is supporting scattered to numerous strong convection across the waters offshore of Guatemala through Costa Rica. Strong and gusty winds and rapidly building seas are likely near thunderstorms. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas prevail south of the monsoon trough. Locally strong SW winds and rough seas to 8 ft are noted well offshore of Costa Rica and Panama, near a 1011 mb low centered near 08N90W. To the north, moderate to fresh NE winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo, enhanced by low pressure to the south and the tropical wave to the east. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight as low pressure prevails over the south-central Caribbean. Strong E to NE winds and locally rough seas are expected to continue in this region and expand into the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala Mon into midweek as low pressure strengthens to the south. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual development of this low, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua through the early part of this week. There is a low chance of tropical formation within the next two days, and a high chance of formation within the next seven days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1035 mb high centered northwest of the area near 38N147W extends ridging through the eastern Pacific, supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of 15N and west of 120W. Rough seas in mixed N and NE swell prevail over this region as noted by recent altimeter satellite data and SOFAR buoy data, with the highest seas to 11 ft noted north of 29N and east of 123W. Elsewhere, a 1012 mb low is centered near 13N137W, and a trough extends northeastward to 18N133W. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail in this region. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate N to NW winds and moderate seas are noted. Otherwise, moderate S to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are occurring south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse north of 15N through Mon as high pressure prevails to the north, before winds diminish slightly for midweek. Rough seas north of 15N will slowly subside west of 130W into Mon morning, and east of 130W Mon into Mon night. Elsewhere, a long-period S to SE swell will move through the equatorial waters this week, supporting rough seas in this region Mon night through late week. Otherwise, moderate SE to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. $$ ADAMS WXTLIST: done