WXTLIST WMO=AXPZ20
AXPZ20 KNHC 090402                                              2023040 0402
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Feb 9 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Pacific Significant Seas: Strong high pressure remains just
north of the discussion waters, and is maintaining a large area
of fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the region north
of 10N and west of 120W. Recent altimeter data and drifting buoy
observations indicate that significant wave heights within this
area of winds are now 8-12 ft in mixed NE waves at 7-9 seconds
and NW swell at 12-14 seconds. The highest seas are now located
from 15N to 22N W of 137W. Winds and seas will slowly subside
through midday Thu, with seas falling just below 12 ft tonight.
However, a similar wind and swell event is expected to commence
late Thu and build through Sat, as the next cold front moves into
the NW waters Thu evening. Large NW swell will move into the NW
waters with the front, and outrun it, spreading seas of 12 ft and
greater to 130W Thu night through Fri afternoon. Strong high
pressure behind the front will increase the pressure gradient
across the regional waters from NW to SE into the weekend, and
create a large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds to the west
of 125W by Sat afternoon. Peak seas around 15 ft will reach the
NW waters early Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
information.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from near 10N75W to 03N83W to 03N98.5W.
The ITCZ extends from 03N101W to 02N106.5W to 06.5N132W to
beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
90 nm of trough between 86W and 99W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between
114W and 136W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong high pressure dominates the Pacific waters, but has
weakened modestly in the past 24 hours. Fresh to strong NNW
winds continue across the Gulf of California, where seas are 5-8
ft across central and southern sections. Moderate to fresh N to
NE winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters,
while gentle to moderate NW to N winds are elsewhere offshore of
southwestern Mexico. Seas continue to gradually subside from the
most recent NW swell event, and are 6-8 ft across the Baja
offshore waters to offshore of Cabo Corrientes.  Seas are 4-7 ft
elsewhere offshore Mexico.
For the forecast, strong high pressure dominating the Baja
California waters for the past 48 hours will slowly weaken and
drift NE through Thu. This will maintain fresh to strong NNW
winds through the Gulf of California through morning before
slowly subsiding Thu and and Fri. Moderate to locally fresh N to
Ne winds across the Baja waters produce will diminish slightly
through Fri morning, then become gentle to moderate. Seas will
slowly subside area wide during this time. Looking ahead, fresh
to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will pulse across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec starting early Thu, then increase to gale-
force starting Fri night, and possibly increasing to storm force
late Fri night into early Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds
will shift into the far northern offshore waters of Baja
California from late Fri night into early Sun, as a cold front
approaches, accompanied by building seas in NW swell.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo
region, extending offshore to 88W. Seas are 5-7 ft in this area.
Fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending
southward to 05N, where seas are 4-6 ft. Light to gentle
variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas
primarily in SW swell.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf
of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through
early next week. Winds may reach near gale-force at night on Sun
and Mon. Fresh N-NE winds will pulse to locally strong tonight,
then remain moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama into Sat.
A significant gale-force gap wind event cross Tehuantepec over
the weekend is expected to send large NW swell across the Guatemala
and El Salvador offshore waters Sat through Sun.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Updated
Strong 1034 mb high pressure remains N of the area near 35N131W.
The associated broad ridge is producing a large area of fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds across the waters N of about 08N
and W of about 120W. Large NE wind generated seas are combining
with NW swell moving through the regional waters, resulting in
gradually subsiding seas of 8-12 ft. Please see the Special
Features section for information concerning these significant
seas.
East of 110W, seas are 6-9 ft in mixed NW and S swell.
Elsewhere, moderate wind and seas are evident. A weak
perturbation aloft, in combination with low-level speed
convergence of the trade flow is helping to sustain scattered
showers and thunderstorms along and north of the ITCZ between
113W-136W.
For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will
begin to drift NE and gradually weaken through Thu. Strong NE
trade winds and large seas to 12 ft will prevail across the area
west of 135W tonight, then subside to just below 12 ft on Thu. A
cold front is expected to enter the NW waters Thu afternoon,
accompanied by large NW swell. High pressure behind the front
will act to produce fresh to strong NE to E winds to the west of
130W Thu night through Fri. Seas will build again to 12 ft and
greater over the western part of the area on Fri as the large NW
swell begins to propagate into that part of the area. The
weakening front will approach the Baja offshore waters Sat, with
the strong high pressure behind it tightening the gradient
resulting in fresh to strong N to NE winds and large seas over
much of the area waters W of 120W through the weekend.
$$
Stripling
WXTLIST: done