WXTLIST WMO=AXPZ20
AXPZ20 KNHC 122109 CCA                                          2024256 2109
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Sep 12 2024
Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Newly formed Tropical Depression Nine-E is centered near 19.2N
107.6W, or about 255 nm south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas at
12/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Satellite imagery reveals that very deep
convection of the numerous strong type has been increasing during
past few hours. This convection is noted within 180 nm of the
center of the depression in the NW semicircle, and within 60 nm
of the depression center in the SE semicircle. The depression is
forecast to maintain its current motion through early Fri,
followed by a turn toward the north and a slight decrease in
forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone
should pass near or over Baja California Sur Fri or Fri night
before emerging over the southern Gulf of California late Fri
night. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36
hours, and the depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical
storm later today, with some slight additional strengthening
possible before the system reaches the southern Baja California
peninsula. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Depression Nine-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical extends from Belize southward to the eastern Pacific
along 88W. It is moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm east of the wave
from 12N to 15N.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia west-
northwestward to across southern Honduras and to 12N86W to
16N98W to 19N108W to 17N117W to low pressure of 1011 mb near
14N123W and to 12N130W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to
beyond 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated with
newly formed Tropical Depression Nine-E and the tropical wave,
scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the
trough between 117W and 120W, and within 120 nm northwest
of the trough between 124W and 127W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected
Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are along and within
about 90 nm offshore the coasts of southern Jalisco, Colima and
Michoacan associated with Tropical Depression Nine-E. High
pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California supporting moderate to locally fresh northwest to
north winds north of Cabo San Lazaro with seas of 5 to 7 ft, and
gentle to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San
Lucas with seas of 4 to 5 ft due to a south swell. Moderate to
fresh south to southwest winds are over the northern Gulf of
California along with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Elsewhere across the
remainder of the Gulf light to gentle winds prevail with seas of
1 to 3 ft. Light and variable winds dominate the Tehuantepec
region.
For the forecast, newly formed Tropical Depression Nine-E is
near 19.2N 107.6W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 6 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Tropical Depression Nine-E
will strengthen to a tropical storm near 20.4N 108.4W this
evening with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, move to
near 22.0N 109.5W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 40 kt
gusts 50 kt, then inland near 23.5N 110.2W Fri evening and back
over water near 25.0N 110.1W Sat morning with maximum sustained
winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Tropical Storm Nine-E is forecast to
move to near 26.1N 110.0W Sat evening with maximum sustained
winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and begin to gradually weaken as it moves
to near 27.0N 110.2W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds 35
kt gusts 45 kt. Tropical Storm Nine-E is forecast to further
weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland to near 28.6N
111.2W by early on Mon. Ahead of Tropical Depression Nine-E,
expect increasing winds and building seas across the offshore
waters of Colima and Jalisco, including Cabo Corrientes today.
These marine conditions are expected to spread across the waters
between Las Marias and the Revillagigedo Islands later today,
possible reaching Los Cabos and the entrance to the Gulf of
California tonight into Fri. Elsewhere, a tightening pressure
gradient between high pressure in the Pacific and deepening
pressures in northern Mexico will continue to support moderate
to fresh northwest winds and moderate seas north of Punta
Eugenia through early Fri. Seas will briefly build to 8 to 9 ft
in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia today and tonight.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle NE winds are over the Papagayo region along with seas of
4 to 5 ft in south to southwest swell. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough
while light to gentle winds are north of it. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
in south to southwest swell, except 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands.
For the forecast, gentle  to moderate south to southwest winds
will continue south of the monsoon trough through the rest of the
week. North of the trough, light to gentle winds are expected.
Moderate seas in primarily southwest swell will continue through
the period, with the highest seas of 6 to 7 ft across the
offshore waters of Costa Rica and western Panama, and between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands today.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Broad high pressure remains present north of 20N and west of
about 125W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for
generally moderate to fresh northeast trades over this part
of the region along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Seas of 4 to 6 ft
are noted elsewhere. Mainly moderate southwest to west winds
continue south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds
north of it and east of about 104W. The exception is between
110W and 120W, where southwest to west winds of fresh to
strong speeds are present with seas of 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will change
little through Sat, with moderate to fresh trades continuing.
Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds and mostly seas of 4 to
6 ft are expected elsewhere south of the monsoon trough.
$$
Aguirre
WXTLIST: done