WXTLIST WMO=AXPZ20 AXPZ20 KNHC 201531 2025079 1531 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Mar 20 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure ridging surging southward across eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front has initiated gale-force gap winds through the Chivela Pass and into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. Guidance suggests that winds may peak to 40 kt, or slighter higher tonight. The culprit tight pressure gradient is forecast to slacken by Fri afternoon allowing for these winds to diminish to fresh to strong speeds. Seas may possibly reach to around 20 ft late tonight into early Fri. Tranquil conditions are forecast into the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure located in northwest Colombia to 08N80W to 05N91W, where it transitions to the ITCZ, and continues to 04N015W to 01N124W to 02N135W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 108W-114W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 134W-140W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ west of 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A tight pressure gradient is leading to fresh to strong northwest winds in the central and southern Gulf of California, with moderate to fresh northeast winds offshore Baja California. Rough seas dominate these areas. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or less, except for some locally fresh NW offshore Cabo Corrientes. Seas in the Gulf are 3 to 6 ft, except for lowers seas of 1 to 3 ft in the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, other than the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh winds offshore Baja California will gradually diminish through the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds in the central and southern Gulf of California will persist today due to a tight pressure gradient. Meanwhile, northwest swell will spread toward the Revillagigedo Islands through tonight, with fresh swell from winds off southern California sustaining rough seas offshore Baja California Norte through Mon. Winds may pulse to fresh near Cabo Corrientes late this weekend. Looking ahead, fresh north winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A tight pressure gradient in the western Caribbean is funneling gap winds through portions of Central America, leading to fresh locally strong offshore winds in the Papagayo region as well as the Gulf of Panama. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in those areas. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through early next week, and near gale- force during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas in this area will build to rough at times. Fresh to locally strong north to northeast winds will pulse from the Gulf of Panama through the Azuero Peninsula through early Sat, with locally rough seas at times. Rough seas generated by gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the waters well offshore of Guatemala late tonight into early Sat. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA.... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the area and lower pressure found in the ITCZ region is resulting in fresh trades from 04N to 25N west of 115W along with seas of 7 to 10 ft in northeast to east swell combining with wind generated seas. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will relax today, allowing winds to decrease to moderate to fresh through the weekend. Rough seas due to northwest swell will continue across much of the open waters today, then retreat to areas mainly west of about 130W into the weekend. Elsewhere, another round of rough seas generated by gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact waters north of 05N and east of 110W tonight into Sat. Looking ahead, a weakening cold front may approach 30N140W early next week with increasing winds ahead of it and large building seas behind it. $$ Aguirre WXTLIST: done