WXTLIST WMO=AXPZ20
AXPZ20 KNHC 222154                                              2021173 2154
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jun 22 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 05N to Honduras along 89W-90W,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 10N to 12N between 91W and 94W. Global models suggest that
an area of low pressure associated with this wave is likely to
form in a few days, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and
southeastern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the end of the week or this weekend. This
disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward to
northwestward, and could be near the coast of southern Mexico by
the weekend. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. In addition to strong winds and large
seas offshore, the main weather impact will be the potential for
heavy rainfall along the mountainous coast of Guerrero,
Michoacan, and Colima. This is in the same general area that
experienced heavy rainfall from Dolores a few days ago.
A tropical wave extends from 05N to 16N along 105W-106W, moving
west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
11N to 14N between 104W and 106W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 12N127W. ITCZ extends
from 10N129W to beyond 07N140W. In addition to the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is evident from 07N to 09N between
92W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is also evident
within 90 nm north and 120 nm south of the ITCZ.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A few showers and thunderstorms are evident this afternoon about
90 nm off Punta Eugenia, and over the northern Gulf of California
from 29N to 30N. This activity is related to instability and lift
ahead of an upper trough west of the area near 120W. Meanwhile, a
weak pressure gradient persists across the Baja California
peninsula offshore waters supporting gentle to locally moderate
NW winds. A scatterometer pass from around 18 UTC indicated light
to gentle NW breezes off Baja California and off southern
Mexico. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the open waters off Mexico with a
component of SW swell. Gentle to moderate southerly flow and
slight seas persist over the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, the gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail
across Baja California offshore waters through Thu. Winds will
increase across the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu
into the weekend as a ridge shifts eastward and builds across the
region. Looking ahead, as discussed in the tropical wave section
above, low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and southeastern Mexico in the next few days and move
W-NW or parallel along the Mexican coast through the weekend. A
tropical depression is likely to develop from this system. This
will bring the potential for winds to gale force with rough seas
off the coast of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon
trough, except where stronger winds are occurring near very
active convection associated with a tropical wave. Elsewhere
light to gentle variable winds generally prevail north of the
monsoon trough. Seas continue in the 5-8 ft range in SW swell.
Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected south of the
monsoon trough through Wed, while moderate SE to E winds prevail
north of the trough. Long period SW swell across the regional
waters will gradually subside through Wed.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 20N and west
of 125W and is centered on a 1028 mb high near 37N144W. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure within the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting gentle to
moderate winds north of 08N and west of 120W. A surface trough is
analyzed along 128W, separating the monsoon trough and the ITCZ.
Recent scatterometer data showed NE winds 10-15 kt near the
trough. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass just west of the
low indicated seas to 7 ft. This is indicative of mainly moderate
SW winds prevailing south of the monsoon trough with seas
ranging between 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell. Wave heights are
expected be 6 to 8 ft across the tropical waters near the ITCZ
west of 130W later in the week, with 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.
$$
Christensen
WXTLIST: done