WXTLIST WMO=AXPZ20
AXPZ20 KNHC 262038                                              2024208 2038
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jul 26 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1940 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud is centered near 19.2N 120.5W at
26/2100 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is well removed from the center, between 60
nm and 120 nm in the NW quadrant. A slower west-southwestward
motion is forecast this weekend. Further weakening is expected,
and the system is forecast to dissipate by Sun. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
the latest Bud NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 78W from 03N at the Pacific
coast of Colombia northward across eastern Panama and the
Caribbean Sea, moving quickly westward at 20-25 kt. Nearby
convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W from 07N to 19N near
the Revillagigedo Islands, moving slowly west at around 5 kt.
Nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough
section.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 130.5W from 05N to 18N,
moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is related
to this wave at this time.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 14N114W, then resumes
from 15N122W to 11N131W. The ITCZ extends from 11N131W to beyond
10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10.5N
between 77W and 91W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 91W and 98W, from 10N
to 17N between 104W and 118W, and from 12N to 16N between 120W
and 127W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A thin plume of fresh N winds is in the immediate Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere across the
offshore waters of Mexico, including in the Gulf of California,
as sampled by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are in the
4-6 ft range in the open waters in mainly S to SW swell, and 1-3
ft in the Gulf of California, except to 4 ft near the entrance.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will pulse in the
Gulf of California this weekend. Fresh N winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec at times. Winds will be moderate or weaker
elsewhere through the next several days, except increasing to
moderate to fresh off Baja California Norte early next week.
Moderate seas will persist across the open waters, building
somewhat off Baja California early next week. Looking ahead, an
area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week a few
hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Some slow development is possible after that time as the system
moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt parallel to the coast
of Mexico.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf of
Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in
mainly S to SW swell.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo through the middle of next week, locally strong Sun
night through Mon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will persist through the next several days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see Special Features for information on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Bud.
Moderate to fresh trades are north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to
17N and west of 130W, locally strong per recent ASCAT
scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds south of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough and west of 120W. Seas are in the 7-9 ft
range across these waters above, mainly in merging NE and SE
swells. Aside from these winds and Post-Tropical Bud, gentle to
moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters,
with 4-7 ft seas, highest west of 110W.
For the forecast, Bud will become a remnant low and move to
19.1N 121.8W Sat morning, 18.9N 123.4W Sat afternoon, 18.5N
125.0W Sun morning, 17.8N 126.6W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon
morning. South of 20N and west of 120W, moderate to fresh winds
combined with long-period southerly swell will support seas of
7-9 ft through Sat evening. Marine conditions may become more
tranquil by the end of the weekend into early next week.
$$
Lewitsky
WXTLIST: done