WXTLIST WMO=ABIO10
ABIO10 PGTW 071800                                              2025038 1753
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070752ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751ZFEB2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.8S 78.3E, APPROXIMATELY 833 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 130 KNOTS GUSTING TO
160 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 070900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 07FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 99.5E, APPROXIMATELY 254 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS33 PGTW 070900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.6S 37.2E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9S
126.3E, APPROXIMATELY 151 NM NORTHWEST OF WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
ROTATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. A 071642Z PARTIAL ASCAT
METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A WIND FIELD OF 20-25 KNOTS IN THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST QUADRANT, WITH AREAS OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO
WRAP MORE INTO THE WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 96S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PROGRESSION
AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF 96S. ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY MODEL
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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