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Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclone 15L
Latest Real-Time CIMSS Product Summary
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Product Latency Color Code : Less than 3 hours old   3 - 6 hours old   6 - 12 hours old   Greater than 12 hours old   Not Available
Current Intensity Estimates ADT
Date Time Vmax MSLP
22Sep2023 0545UTC 28 kts 974 hPa
Scene CI# FT# AdjT# RawT# Eye T Cloud T
SHEAR 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 17.93C 8.39C
Date Time Vmax  
22Sep2023 0545UTC 38 kts  
Date Time Vmax MSLP
22Sep2023 0700UTC 51 kts 973 hPa
Vmax 25% Vmax 75%    
45 kts 58 kts    
Date Time Vmax MSLP
22Sep2023 0416UTC 62 kts 971 hPa
Vmax 25% Vmax 75% MW Instr.  
55 kts 69 kts AMSR2  
Date Time Vmax MSLP
21Sep2023 2335UTC 63 kts 966 hPa
  Satellite FOV  
  METOP-C 19  
Date Time Vmax MSLP
22Sep2023 0545UTC 47 kts 976 hPa
Consensus Members
2 (ADT+Sounders)

RI Forecast AI-RI
Date Time Current Vmax Current MPI
22Sep2023 0600UTC 60 kts 22 kts
20kt/12h 25kt/24h 30kt/24h 35kt/24h 40kt/24h 45kt/36h 55kt/48h 65kt/72h
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Position Estimates ARCHER
Date Time Latitude Longitude
22Sep2023 0606UTC 45.64N 33.35W
Satellite Sensor Eye Diameter Eye Cert %
SSMIS-18 85-92GHz 3.00 deg 0.0%

TC Structure MPERC
Date Time Prob. ERC onset
Full Model
Prob. ERC onset
22Sep2023 0600UTC 0% 0%
Shear Analysis
Date Time Shear Magnitude
Shear Direction
22Sep2023 600UTC 59 kts 248 deg
Deep-layer vertical wind shear interpolated to storm center derived from the CIMSS AMV-aided analyses with vortex removed
TC-Scale AMVs