SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 044 WTPN31 PGTW 112100 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 044 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 09W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 28.7N 120.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 120.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 30.7N 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 32.3N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 33.6N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 35.1N 119.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 29.2N 119.9E. 11JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA AT APPROXIMATELY 111500Z. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL STORM WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE VORTEX. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SIMILARLY LARGE REGION OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND. TS BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS THEN TURN POLEWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AS IT STEADILY DECAYS OVER LAND. 09W IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE ULTIMATE FATE OF THE SYSTEM AS A RESULT OF ITS TRAJECTORY OVER LAND. SOME NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR THE REMNANTS OF 09W TO EMERGE OVER THE YELLOW SEA WHILE RETAINING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS XX FEET.// BT #0001 NNNN