SUBJ: TYPHOON 26W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 028 WTPN32 PGTW 062100 1. TYPHOON 26W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 028 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 36.3N 149.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 30 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 325 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 36.3N 149.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 42.6N 156.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 52 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 50.2N 167.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 380 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 37.9N 151.3E. 06OCT26. TYPHOON 26W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 461 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS 262 WITH A REMNANT, COMPACT INNER CORE, WHICH IS UNDERGOING A RAPID DECOUPLING WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL VORTEX DUE TO PERSISTENT, HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE DECOUPLING HAS NOT YET PROGRESSED FAR ENOUGH TO SEE CLEAR EVIDENCE OF IT IN THE EIR, AND A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETER DATA LIMITS ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, THE OUTER EDGES OF THE LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES CAN BE SEEN STARTING TO EMERGE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL CDO FEATURE WHICH IS VERY RAPIDLY TRANSLATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. PHASE-SPACE ANALYSES SUGGEST 26W IS ALREADY BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND ITS TRANSITION IS EXEPECTED TO OCCUR VERY RAPIDLY NOW THAT IT HAS COMMENCED. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, REACHING OVER 50 KNOTS OF FORWARD SPEED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WHILE THE BULK OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEGUN A SHARP DECLINE DUE TO THE DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, THE SATCON REMAINS NEAR 77 KNOTS WHICH IS VERY LIKELY VERY CLOSE TO REALITY, AS THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE TIME TO SPIN DOWN. THE ADDITION OF BAROCLINIC FORCINGS WILL SLOW THE RATE OF WEAKENING EVEN MORE, AND 26W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT COMPLETES ETT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 959 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 42 FEET. REFER TO HURRICANE 15E (NOLO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 27W (KOGUMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // BT #0001 NNNN