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Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Nolo)
Latest Real-Time CIMSS Product Summary
Current Time :     		NHC/JTWC
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Product Latency Color Code : Less than 3 hours old   3 - 6 hours old   6 - 12 hours old   Greater than 12 hours old   Not Available
Current Intensity Estimates ADT
Date Time Vmax MSLP
06Oct2026 0530UTC 109 kts 950 hPa
Scene CI# FT# AdjT# RawT# Eye T Cloud T
EYE 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.5 17.93C -56.85C
AiDT-V2
Date Time Vmax  
06Oct2026 0530UTC 100 kts  
 
DPRINT
Date Time Vmax MSLP
06Oct2026 0500UTC 115 kts 952 hPa
Vmax 25% Vmax 75%    
110 kts 120 kts    
DMINT
Date Time Vmax MSLP
06Oct2026 0213UTC 104 kts 965 hPa
Vmax 25% Vmax 75% MW Instr.  
100 kts 109 kts ATMS-N20  
Date Time Vmax MSLP
06Oct2026 0116UTC 103 kts 966 hPa
Vmax 25% Vmax 75% MW Instr.  
99 kts 107 kts ATMS-N21  
Date Time Vmax MSLP
06Oct2026 0018UTC 117 kts 945 hPa
Vmax 25% Vmax 75% MW Instr.  
111 kts 122 kts AMSR3  
MW Sounders
Date Time Vmax MSLP
05Oct2026 1858UTC 110 kts 955 hPa
  Satellite FOV  
  17 47  
SATCON
Date Time Vmax MSLP
05Oct2026 2100UTC 112 kts 954 hPa
Consensus Members
2 (ADT+Sounders)

RI Forecast AI-RI
Date Time Current Vmax Current MPI
04Oct2026 1800UTC 100 kts 121 kts
20kt/12h 25kt/24h 30kt/24h 35kt/24h 40kt/24h 45kt/36h 55kt/48h 65kt/72h
0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Position Estimates ARCHER
Date Time Latitude Longitude
06Oct2026 0230UTC 25.62N 171.95E
Satellite Sensor Eye Diameter Eye Cert %
HIMAWARI9 IR 0.40 deg 100.0%

TC Structure MPERC
Date Time Prob. ERC onset
Full Model		 Prob. ERC onset
V-based
05Oct2026 1900UTC 20% 17%
 
MIMIC-TPW
 
MIMIC-TC
 
Shear Analysis
Date Time Shear Magnitude
 Shear Direction
06Oct2026 000UTC 15 kts 328 deg
Deep-layer vertical wind shear interpolated to storm center derived from the CIMSS AMV-aided analyses with vortex removed
TC-Scale AMVs