CIMSS AI Rapid Intensification Index

Ophelia at 09/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 72 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	SHIPS Consensus	0.4%	1.1%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.3%	0.8%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	SHIPS-RII	1.0%	3.3%	2.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	Logistic Regression	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Philippe at 09/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 145 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	8.4%	20.8%	19.3%	4.1%	6.2%	23.9%	22.4%	16.0%	SHIPS Consensus	4.3%	11.5%	5.9%	4.2%	3.0%	7.7%	8.2%	9.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	5.3%	13.8%	9.2%	4.1%	3.8%	11.7%	11.7%	11.2%	SHIPS-RII	5.0%	17.5%	11.8%	9.3%	7.1%	11.5%	13.2%	15.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS	4.7%	13.4%	11.6%	3.0%	3.6%	12.4%	11.2%	8.5%	Logistic Regression	3.7%	10.0%	4.0%	3.1%	1.9%	10.1%	10.2%	11.8%
									Bayesian	4.3%	7.0%	2.0%	0.2%	0.1%	1.3%	1.3%	1.7%
									DTOPS	1.0%	6.0%	4.0%	2.0%	1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	1.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fourteen at 09/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 141 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.9%	4.3%	2.8%	2.2%	0.6%	1.6%	1.4%	1.0%	SHIPS Consensus	3.6%	10.5%	6.7%	4.9%	0.2%	6.1%	4.7%	3.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	2.9%	8.9%	5.7%	4.2%	0.3%	5.0%	3.8%	2.6%	SHIPS-RII	8.6%	17.4%	13.8%	11.1%	0.0%	15.2%	12.7%	7.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.9%	3.1%	1.9%	1.6%	0.8%	1.3%	1.7%	1.0%	Logistic Regression	2.0%	13.9%	6.2%	3.7%	0.6%	3.2%	1.4%	1.7%
									Bayesian	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	2.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	2.0%	1.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last Updated: 20230924 at 0830 UTC

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