CIMSS AI Rapid Intensification Index

Kirk at 10/04/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 143 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.4%	1.0%	0.3%	0.6%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	3.0%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	2.3%	1.1%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	11.2%	3.5%	4.1%	1.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	3.7%	2.2%	1.0%	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
									Bayesian	5.4%	1.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	22.0%	6.0%	8.0%	2.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Leslie at 10/04/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	8.6%	27.5%	14.8%	9.1%	2.7%	18.8%	23.0%	20.5%	SHIPS Consensus	3.4%	17.2%	7.6%	4.2%	3.0%	7.5%	9.4%	12.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	4.6%	19.8%	9.4%	5.4%	2.9%	10.3%	12.8%	14.2%	SHIPS-RII	3.7%	16.5%	10.6%	7.9%	5.2%	11.6%	12.7%	21.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS	7.3%	28.2%	15.4%	10.5%	4.3%	19.9%	21.5%	13.7%	Logistic Regression	4.8%	11.8%	5.9%	4.0%	2.9%	7.2%	10.8%	11.0%
									Bayesian	1.6%	23.4%	6.4%	0.6%	0.9%	3.8%	4.7%	4.2%
									DTOPS	6.0%	29.0%	16.0%	12.0%	6.0%	21.0%	20.0%	7.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Eleven at 10/03/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 168 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	4.1%	8.6%	3.9%	7.0%	4.2%	4.8%	3.0%	12.9%	SHIPS Consensus	5.3%	18.2%	8.3%	6.0%	3.7%	11.1%	10.3%	13.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	4.9%	15.8%	7.2%	6.2%	3.8%	9.5%	8.4%	13.0%	SHIPS-RII	10.6%	24.2%	16.6%	13.4%	10.2%	22.6%	20.3%	31.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS	2.0%	4.8%	1.9%	3.5%	2.1%	2.4%	1.5%	6.9%	Logistic Regression	4.1%	21.2%	5.7%	3.8%	0.8%	8.3%	8.9%	6.7%
									Bayesian	1.0%	9.3%	2.6%	0.8%	0.0%	2.4%	1.7%	0.9%
									DTOPS	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last Updated: 20241004 at 0225 UTC

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