Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

Go to: Atlantic TCs
Go to: East Pacific TCs
Go to: West Pacific TCs

Atlantic TCs:  Philippe

Ophelia at 09/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 72 kts    

 

Ophelia History

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.0% 3.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Ophelia intensity image current Ophelia intensity image
current Ophelia IR image

Philippe at 09/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

Philippe History

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.4% 20.8% 19.3% 4.1% 6.2% 23.9% 22.4% 16.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 11.5% 5.9% 4.2% 3.0% 7.7% 8.2% 9.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 13.8% 9.2% 4.1% 3.8% 11.7% 11.7% 11.2% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 17.5% 11.8% 9.3% 7.1% 11.5% 13.2% 15.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.7% 13.4% 11.6% 3.0% 3.6% 12.4% 11.2% 8.5% Logistic Regression 3.7% 10.0% 4.0% 3.1% 1.9% 10.1% 10.2% 11.8%
Bayesian 4.3% 7.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.7%
DTOPS 1.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Philippe intensity image current Philippe intensity image
current Philippe IR image

Eastern Pacific TCs:  Fourteen

Fourteen at 09/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

Fourteen History

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 4.3% 2.8% 2.2% 0.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 10.5% 6.7% 4.9% 0.2% 6.1% 4.7% 3.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 8.9% 5.7% 4.2% 0.3% 5.0% 3.8% 2.6% SHIPS-RII 8.6% 17.4% 13.8% 11.1% 0.0% 15.2% 12.7% 7.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 3.1% 1.9% 1.6% 0.8% 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 13.9% 6.2% 3.7% 0.6% 3.2% 1.4% 1.7%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Fourteen intensity image current Fourteen intensity image
current Fourteen IR image

Western Pacific TCs:

Last Updated: 20230924 at 0830 UTC

Past 2023 Atlantic TCs

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Gert
Emily
Franklin
Harold
Idalia
Jose
Katia
Lee
Margot
Nigel


Past 2023 E Pacific TCs

Adrian
Beatriz
Calvin
Four
Dora
Eugene
Fernanda
Greg
Hilary
Irwin
Jova
Twelve
Kenneth


Past 2023 W Pacific TCs

One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six
Seven
Eight
Nine
Ten
Eleven
Twelve