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Atlantic TCs: Philippe
Ophelia at 09/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 72 kts |
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Ophelia History
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
0.4% |
1.1% |
0.7% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
0.3% |
0.8% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
1.0% |
3.3% |
2.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.7% |
|
Logistic Regression |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
1.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Philippe at 09/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 145 kts |
|
Philippe History
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
8.4% |
20.8% |
19.3% |
4.1% |
6.2% |
23.9% |
22.4% |
16.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
4.3% |
11.5% |
5.9% |
4.2% |
3.0% |
7.7% |
8.2% |
9.6% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
5.3% |
13.8% |
9.2% |
4.1% |
3.8% |
11.7% |
11.7% |
11.2% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
5.0% |
17.5% |
11.8% |
9.3% |
7.1% |
11.5% |
13.2% |
15.3% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
4.7% |
13.4% |
11.6% |
3.0% |
3.6% |
12.4% |
11.2% |
8.5% |
|
Logistic Regression |
3.7% |
10.0% |
4.0% |
3.1% |
1.9% |
10.1% |
10.2% |
11.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
4.3% |
7.0% |
2.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
1.3% |
1.3% |
1.7% |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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DTOPS |
1.0% |
6.0% |
4.0% |
2.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
1.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Eastern Pacific TCs: Fourteen
Fourteen at 09/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 141 kts |
|
Fourteen History
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
0.9% |
4.3% |
2.8% |
2.2% |
0.6% |
1.6% |
1.4% |
1.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
3.6% |
10.5% |
6.7% |
4.9% |
0.2% |
6.1% |
4.7% |
3.2% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
2.9% |
8.9% |
5.7% |
4.2% |
0.3% |
5.0% |
3.8% |
2.6% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
8.6% |
17.4% |
13.8% |
11.1% |
0.0% |
15.2% |
12.7% |
7.9% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
0.9% |
3.1% |
1.9% |
1.6% |
0.8% |
1.3% |
1.7% |
1.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
2.0% |
13.9% |
6.2% |
3.7% |
0.6% |
3.2% |
1.4% |
1.7% |
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Bayesian |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
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DTOPS |
1.0% |
2.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
2.0% |
1.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Western Pacific TCs:
Last Updated: 20230924 at 0830 UTC
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