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Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclone 15W (15w)
Latest Real-Time CIMSS Product Summary
Current Time :     		NHC/JTWC
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Product Latency Color Code : Less than 3 hours old   3 - 6 hours old   6 - 12 hours old   Greater than 12 hours old   Not Available
Current Intensity Estimates ADT
Date Time Vmax MSLP
11Aug2026 2310UTC 28 kts 996 hPa
Scene CI# FT# AdjT# RawT# Eye T Cloud T
SHEAR 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 -4.04C -5.86C
AiDT-V2
Date Time Vmax  
11Aug2026 2310UTC 28 kts  
 
DPRINT
Date Time Vmax MSLP
11Aug2026 2310UTC 29 kts 997 hPa
Vmax 25% Vmax 75%    
26 kts 32 kts    
DMINT
Date Time Vmax MSLP
11Aug2026 1800UTC 26 kts 997 hPa
Vmax 25% Vmax 75% MW Instr.  
24 kts 28 kts SSMISF18  
MW Sounders
Date Time Vmax MSLP
11Aug2026 1526UTC 43 kts 994 hPa
  Satellite FOV  
  NOAA-20 27  
SATCON
Date Time Vmax MSLP
11Aug2026 1730UTC 37 kts 996 hPa
Consensus Members
2 (ADT+Sounders)

RI Forecast AI-RI
Date Time Current Vmax Current MPI
11Aug2026 1800UTC 20 kts 133 kts
20kt/12h 25kt/24h 30kt/24h 35kt/24h 40kt/24h 45kt/36h 55kt/48h 65kt/72h
0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 3.0%

Position Estimates ARCHER
Date Time Latitude Longitude
11Aug2026 2030UTC 28.49N 161.32E
Satellite Sensor Eye Diameter Eye Cert %
HIMAWARI9 SWIR 0.20 deg ---%

TC Structure MPERC
Date Time Prob. ERC onset
Full Model		 Prob. ERC onset
V-based
11Aug2026 0700UTC 0% 0%
 
MIMIC-TPW
 
MIMIC-TC
 
Shear Analysis
Date Time Shear Magnitude
 Shear Direction
11Aug2026 1800UTC 24 kts 278 deg
Deep-layer vertical wind shear interpolated to storm center derived from the CIMSS AMV-aided analyses with vortex removed
TC-Scale AMVs