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Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclone 17W (Saudel)
Latest Real-Time CIMSS Product Summary
Current Time :     		NHC/JTWC
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Product Latency Color Code : Less than 3 hours old   3 - 6 hours old   6 - 12 hours old   Greater than 12 hours old   Not Available
Current Intensity Estimates ADT
Date Time Vmax MSLP
21Aug2026 1510UTC 47 kts 996 hPa
Scene CI# FT# AdjT# RawT# Eye T Cloud T
EYE 3.1 3.1 4.6 5.6 -27.60C -69.41C
AiDT-V2
Date Time Vmax  
21Aug2026 1510UTC 52 kts  
 
DPRINT
Date Time Vmax MSLP
21Aug2026 1510UTC 73 kts 968 hPa
Vmax 25% Vmax 75%    
66 kts 80 kts    
DMINT
Date Time Vmax MSLP
21Aug2026 1227UTC 63 kts 982 hPa
Vmax 25% Vmax 75% MW Instr.  
58 kts 69 kts TMS06  
Date Time Vmax MSLP
21Aug2026 1211UTC 51 kts 988 hPa
Vmax 25% Vmax 75% MW Instr.  
46 kts 56 kts AWS  
MW Sounders
Date Time Vmax MSLP
21Aug2026 0357UTC 43 kts 995 hPa
  Satellite FOV  
  NOAA-21 91  
SATCON
Date Time Vmax MSLP
21Aug2026 0610UTC 46 kts 996 hPa
Consensus Members
2 (ADT+Sounders)

RI Forecast AI-RI
Date Time Current Vmax Current MPI
21Aug2026 1200UTC 70 kts 132 kts
20kt/12h 25kt/24h 30kt/24h 35kt/24h 40kt/24h 45kt/36h 55kt/48h 65kt/72h
30.6% 55.6% 41.7% 47.2% 42.8% 50.3% 55.2% 43.0%

Position Estimates ARCHER
Date Time Latitude Longitude
21Aug2026 1130UTC 16.05N 148.29E
Satellite Sensor Eye Diameter Eye Cert %
HIMAWARI9 IR 0.10 deg 100.0%

TC Structure MPERC
Date Time Prob. ERC onset
Full Model		 Prob. ERC onset
V-based
21Aug2026 0600UTC 0% 0%
 
MIMIC-TPW
 
MIMIC-TC
 
Shear Analysis
Date Time Shear Magnitude
 Shear Direction
21Aug2026 1200UTC 13 kts 198 deg
Deep-layer vertical wind shear interpolated to storm center derived from the CIMSS AMV-aided analyses with vortex removed
TC-Scale AMVs