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Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclone 02W (Penha)
Latest Real-Time CIMSS Product Summary
Current Time :     		NHC/JTWC
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Product Latency Color Code : Less than 3 hours old   3 - 6 hours old   6 - 12 hours old   Greater than 12 hours old   Not Available
Current Intensity Estimates ADT
Date Time Vmax MSLP
05Feb2026 1800UTC N/A kts N/A hPa
Scene CI# FT# AdjT# RawT# Eye T Cloud T
LAND N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AC N/AC
AiDT
Date Time Vmax  
05Feb2026 1530UTC 43 kts  
 
DPRINT
Date Time Vmax MSLP
05Feb2026 1800UTC 42 kts 994 hPa
Vmax 25% Vmax 75%    
36 kts 49 kts    
DMINT
Date Time Vmax MSLP
05Feb2026 1717UTC 39 kts 999 hPa
Vmax 25% Vmax 75% MW Instr.  
35 kts 43 kts ATMS-N20  
MW Sounders
Date Time Vmax MSLP
05Feb2026 1717UTC 43 kts 997 hPa
  Satellite FOV  
  NOAA-20 29  
SATCON
Date Time Vmax MSLP
05Feb2026 1530UTC 47 kts 997 hPa
Consensus Members
2 (ADT+Sounders)

RI Forecast AI-RI
Date Time Current Vmax Current MPI
05Feb2026 1200UTC 40 kts 9999 kts
20kt/12h 25kt/24h 30kt/24h 35kt/24h 40kt/24h 45kt/36h 55kt/48h 65kt/72h
0.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 1.3% 1.1% 2.6%

Position Estimates ARCHER
Date Time Latitude Longitude
05Feb2026 0115UTC 7.92N 129.08E
Satellite Sensor Eye Diameter Eye Cert %
Metop-C ASCAT --- deg ---%

TC Structure MPERC
Date Time Prob. ERC onset
Full Model		 Prob. ERC onset
V-based
05Feb2026 0700UTC 0% 0%
 
MIMIC-TPW
 
MIMIC-TC
 
Shear Analysis
Date Time Shear Magnitude
 Shear Direction
05Feb2026 1800UTC 25 kts 89 deg
Deep-layer vertical wind shear interpolated to storm center derived from the CIMSS AMV-aided analyses with vortex removed
TC-Scale AMVs