CIMSS AI Rapid Intensification Index

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index (Reference)

Go to: Atlantic TCs
Go to: East Pacific TCs
Go to: West Pacific TCs
Go to: Southern Hemisphere TCs

Atlantic TCs:

Eastern Pacific TCs:

Western Pacific TCs:

Southern Hemisphere TCs:

Bakung at 12/15/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts

Bakung History

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.4%	2.7%	4.6%	0.8%	0.3%	2.8%	4.0%	3.0%	0.5%	4.4%	RIPA Consensus	0.2%	1.6%	0.5%	0.3%	0.3%	1.1%	0.2%	1.2%	0.2%	1.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.2%	1.9%	1.9%	0.5%	0.2%	1.7%	1.5%	1.7%	0.3%	2.3%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.1%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	1.6%	0.2%	1.6%
											Logistic Regression	0.3%	2.6%	0.9%	0.7%	0.5%	2.0%	0.4%	0.7%	0.3%	1.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Eight at 12/15/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts

Eight History

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	1.2%	5.9%	3.9%	1.2%	1.0%	2.3%	1.5%	3.2%	0.1%	3.8%	RIPA Consensus	0.9%	8.6%	3.3%	2.4%	2.1%	5.5%	1.4%	6.6%	1.7%	6.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.9%	7.7%	3.5%	2.0%	1.7%	4.4%	1.4%	5.5%	1.1%	5.2%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.3%	3.9%	1.3%	0.4%	0.4%	2.4%	0.7%	9.5%	2.1%	9.5%
											Logistic Regression	1.4%	13.4%	5.3%	4.5%	3.9%	8.6%	2.1%	3.8%	1.3%	2.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last Updated: 20251216 at 0030 UTC

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