Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

Go to: Atlantic TCs
Go to: East Pacific TCs
Go to: West Pacific TCs
Go to: Southern Hemisphere TCs

Atlantic TCs:

Eastern Pacific TCs:

Lala at 08/27/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 44 kts    

 

Lala History

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 2.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 1.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 7.6% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Lala intensity image current Lala intensity image
current Lala IR image

Iselle at 08/27/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 24 kts    

 

Iselle History

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Iselle intensity image current Iselle intensity image
current Iselle IR image

Western Pacific TCs:

Saudel at 08/27/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 119 kts    

 

Saudel History

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.9% 3.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Saudel intensity image current Saudel intensity image
current Saudel microwave image

Twenty at 08/27/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

Twenty History

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 14.8% 6.5% 1.1% 0.1% 5.1% 2.1% 28.4% 2.0% 59.7% RIPA Consensus 2.1% 24.3% 11.8% 7.9% 7.9% 35.6% 20.5% 43.2% 29.7% 64.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 21.1% 10.0% 5.6% 5.3% 25.4% 14.3% 38.2% 20.4% 62.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 15.0% 7.6% 1.8% 1.8% 24.4% 17.1% 42.0% 26.9% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 2.9% 33.7% 15.9% 14.0% 14.0% 46.8% 23.8% 44.3% 32.5% 65.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Twenty intensity image current Twenty intensity image
current Twenty microwave image

Twentyone at 08/27/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

Twentyone History

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.7% 9.1% 3.5% 5.7% 1.8% 9.0% 5.5% 2.3% 1.0% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 3.4% 25.3% 10.7% 7.6% 5.4% 15.6% 5.4% 18.9% 8.2% 25.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.8% 19.9% 8.3% 7.0% 4.1% 13.4% 5.4% 13.3% 5.7% 17.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.5% 19.6% 8.1% 3.0% 0.9% 8.3% 3.5% 30.4% 12.2% 40.1%
Logistic Regression 4.3% 31.1% 13.4% 12.3% 9.8% 22.9% 7.3% 7.3% 4.1% 11.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Twentyone intensity image current Twentyone intensity image
current Twentyone microwave image

Southern Hemisphere TCs:

Last Updated: 20260827 at 0655 UTC

Past 2026 Atlantic TCs
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal


Past 2026 E Pacific TCs
Moke
Amanda
Boris
Cristina
Douglas
Elida
Fausto
Genevieve
Hernan
Julio


Past 2026 W Pacific TCs
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Past Southern Hemisphere TCs
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